Eagles or Black Swans?

Posted by: rek on June 27, 2008 12:18PM

One reason for the low NOT.V stock price is that some potential investors believe the story is too good to be true. Fifty oz/ton gold at Windfall? Unbelievable! Over five percent nickle and PGM at Eagle One? Incredible! Very thick chromitite layers at Eagle Two? What the heck is chromitite and what is it doing in North America?

Some skeptical investor/traders may go no further in their due diligence, and falsely conclude the NOT.V story is extreme hype over very rare, but very small, lucky strikes into tiny ore bodies. If they ever invest in NOT.V, they (especially institutional investors) will wait for a 43-101 report before doing so.

I believe these people are being fooled by a "black swan": a highly improbable event that (1) was unpredictable; (2) carries a massive impact; and (3) after the fact is explained away to make it appear, in retrospect, less random and more predictable than it actually was.

The reality of "black swans," and why most investors/traders cannot see them, is the topic of: N. N. Taleb, "THE BLACK SWAN," New York: Random House, 2007. Taleb is a self-made multi-millionaire options trader. His Black Swan book was a New York Times best-seller.

Not only are NOT.V's Windfall and Eagle One, Two, etc. projects good examples of "positive" black swans, the entire McFaulds Lake area, in my opinion, is one huge, world-scale, positive black swan.

The best way to invest in a black swan event/process is to buy early, accumulate on dips in stock price, and hold for the long term when the reality of the black swan is finally recognized by the general market.