Misfit's Midday Musings for Friday, July 18, 2008
posted on
Jul 18, 2008 08:46AM
NI 43-101 Update (September 2012): 11.1 Mt @ 1.68% Ni, 0.87% Cu, 0.89 gpt Pt and 3.09 gpt Pd and 0.18 gpt Au (Proven & Probable Reserves) / 8.9 Mt @ 1.10% Ni, 1.14% Cu, 1.16 gpt Pt and 3.49 gpt Pd and 0.30 gpt Au (Inferred Resource)
Hi All,
Been away for a week but I see a lot has changed since then. The last time I checked in we were trading at $2.35 and we were cashing in out empties to buy whatever freebies the shorters were offering us.
I was tempted to post last night but thought the better of it as I did not want to be seen as a basher. The news release yesterday was good. Not stunning as the previous news releases that we have become accustomed to, but positive nonetheless. We now have another solid target 8.5 KM away from DE1 proving that there may just be a "ring of fire" afterall. The most positive aspect of the NR yesterday for me dealt with Noront's control over the area. The real message yesterday is that Noront owns or has control through JV (remember that they are the operators in each one except one) a large part of the area.
Yesterday I was going to set an expectation that the SP would not rise as fast as everybody is expecting today. I was going to predict a drop. But then I would have been skewered. Why a drop? Past history. Even after the solid news releases last year and earlier this year regarding the amazing grades from DE1 and to a lesser extent DE2, the share price dropped before it reached its new highs. The fact that we are close to par today is an improvement. It shows me that the downward pressure has subsided and the MMs now want to take this long for awhile to make some money.
My guess is that they did not make as much money as they predicted with the shorting spree of the last few weeks due to stronger hands picking up the cheapies. It is easy on low volumes to short and quickly cover, creating the impression of a crashing stock and influencing the charts. It would be interesting to know what percentage of activity over the past few weeks have been longs selling, shorters selling, or day traders betting on up and down swings. My guess is that there were very few longs selling as their averages are much higher than $4 and we had no news to indicate there was trouble in the future.
So what a difference a week makes. We are up 50%. But what a difference a year makes for those who have been long since Windfall news broke. A year ago DE was just a recently acquired option and Windfall permitting was stuck in the government. Now we have visible gold coming out of the ramping before we have hit the hot spots that are targeted. And we have four drills operating all over the place at McFaulds with another coming. 60M in the bank (minus what they have spent the last six months) and a new team dedicated to taking this to the next level.
Like D12, I left the board last December due to partly to infighting and dissention on this board but mostly due to the disappointment with the SP after great news. Had I been patient I would have seen +$7 again and been able to sell some at a higher price. While I have a core amount of shares for the long term, I also have a percentage that I use to buy and sell on monthly dips. It takes money to buy the cheapies and sometimes that means taking some profit when things are good. Nobody has a crystal ball but MMs make money during the rises and falls, not holding long term. Understanding how they work is a key to understanding prices and sometimes having equity to pick up the cheapies they sometimes create.
I am sure D12 will be back at sometime. When a person has invested so much time in a high potential company and is a long, it is sometimes good to step back, take a break, and let the next D12 step in and contribute as a leader. I do not judge D12 for leaving, but thank him for what he has contributed to date. One day we will welcome his comments again.
Now, in terms of board dissension. I am not sure if you noticed but the last NR directly pointed to the fact that this board is to be used to find information regarding Noront. The NR did not say "call the office." It instructed those reading the NR to check out the Agoracom Noront board.
That means that Noront expects that this board, as well as the $$ they have provided to Agoracom to continue to monitor this board for accurate information, will be put to good use in the hands of the shareholders. Infighting does not help this goal. Imagine being a new buyer and reading some of the posts of the last few weeks. Would you consider buying when many holders are so ticked off.
We all have a right to be ticked off, but sometimes it is good to keep the venting to the cat or dog and keep this board focussed on providing information that is relevant to helping all of us keep the faith. I too have been shaken in the past by some of the slick arguments of the bashers on a different site (way back in 2006) and could have walked away with more cash if I had just kept the faith. They are paid to cast doubt and convince you that what looks good is too good to be true. They seem to have credibility as the SP tends to drop after their bashing. But this is not because of their bashing. It is because the funds they work for have the resources to drop the share price. This lends credibility to the bashers who seem like prophets and thus convince some to sell.
So it takes many on here and those fighting the front lines on the other boards to keep reminding the masses to what we have. If we are in a war with the fund managers, then as the band of merry NOTTERs, let's focus on defending what we have and stop picking fights with each other. Not only does it not contribute to the morale on here, but it pushes the quality posts down into the archives and keeps many from reading them.
So let's grow up and remain focussed on the end result. That of a production mining camp that will bring all shareholders riches. The share price will eventually follow. Until then, give the boys at Noront time to do their jobs and continue drilling and looking for the next Eagle or Blackbird or whatever new bird may happen to appear. I was thinking that if they hit Kimberlite or Oil I would probably have to check into a mental ward given what this would mean. One can dream :)
Anyway, keep up the good posts everyone. Help keep the focus of the board positive as there are many other boards out there doing a good job with the negative. The members on here provide the balance. Please keep personal issues to the private in-boxes and those of us with a knack for research, writing, and having a phone connection with Richard for updates will continue posting.
P.S. Have a nice time off D12. Return when you are ready.
M1.