Don't thank me - think for yourselves
posted on
Jul 31, 2008 11:57AM
NI 43-101 Update (September 2012): 11.1 Mt @ 1.68% Ni, 0.87% Cu, 0.89 gpt Pt and 3.09 gpt Pd and 0.18 gpt Au (Proven & Probable Reserves) / 8.9 Mt @ 1.10% Ni, 1.14% Cu, 1.16 gpt Pt and 3.49 gpt Pd and 0.30 gpt Au (Inferred Resource)
Okay,
I have caused a reaction by many on here that ranges from "I want to kill him" to "Thanks for discussing the other possibilities".
I knew I was taking a risk talking about supply and demand and because of the many informative posts that resulted, I believe that we as a board have a better understanding of the current market for chrome.
What bothered me yesterday was the almost "euphoric" shoot the moon estimates that were quickly coming out. I saw the same thing when Windfall came out and when Double Eagle first broke. And a lot of people bought high and either waited a long time or sold for a loss.
I asked some hard questions yesterday and have been accused of many different things, from being bad at business, to shorting, to being a pump and dumper, ...
I do not normally do this but I will answer those who question my motives and will let you decide for yourselves. I do get many positive clicks on my posts and am looked to as one of the leaders, so I think it is important for people to know where I stand and where I've been.
First off, I first invested in Noront in November 2006. Bought in at .195 cents only to see it fall to 18 cents two weeks later. It was like many penny juniors on the TSX-V today. Cheap with potential.
Back then, I joined the stockhouse board and there was about four of us posting. We averaged about ten posts a week. Noront was a sleeping stock. When Windfall broke, all hell broke loose. The posts went from talking about the properties to seeing all sorts of bashers attack the company, the stock, the geos, ... Noront had 60M shares outstanding back then and 20 million shares traded hands in one day. 20 million! Naked short selling at its best to keep the price down for the eventual PP that diluted the company by 30 Million more shares at a price of .50 cents. Sure we sold our souls to the devil but the money helped to advance Windfall and purchase more properties like the Double Eagle property we now have.
Many of us posted for a straight year between December 2006 and December 2007. I had thousands of posts. Many long. I put in the time and helped those and myself keep faith in the company when the share price dropped from its high of $1.07 to a low of .29 cents last August.
I decided to sell out between December 2007 and March 2008 as I had moved into a new house and wanted to furnish it, travel, and buy a new car. This is the reason I buy stocks. To make money. The only time you actually make money is when you sell.
While I planned to keep some shares in hand for the summer, a friend of mine who I play tennis with shared info he had received from his investment banker about the upcoming foreclosure crisis in the US. It was to start in April. Little did we know that the big hit would be in June. Regardless, I sold all my stock, every stock, and decided to wait it out until I returned from a month long trip. Two months later I bought back in for a nice low price. I was lucky. Noront could have stayed at $7 bucks and I doubt I would have bought another share at that price. But at $3.50, $3.00, and $2.45, the price was too good to pass up. As are all the other cheapies out there I have followed for years. When the share prices are 10 percent higher than the 52 week lows and have been like that for 2 months, it is time to buy for the future. That is my thinking anyway.
Last December I talked about starting a group to find the next Noront. I received 63 responses, including one from Agoracom offering to host the portal. After discussing this with some close friends on here (including Bentonstocks), I decided it would be hard to keep the integrity of such a group in tact. In retrospect I was right. Any picks we would have made would have lost all participants a lot of money, not because they were bad picks but because we entered into a brutal market in January which saw 20 - 50% corrections.
The other reason is the "self-fulfilling" prophecy. Someone says this is the next "big thing" and everyone goes out and buys, driving up the price. Then the shorters short it down and morale hits the floor and fighting starts.
In the end if was doomed from the start. To limit it to ten close friends would have been unfair to everyone, so I killed the idea. After a year of posting solidly on the boards, I took a vacation. At first for only a month but once you take a break you sometimes get used to the free time and enjoy it. I held stock but really didn't look at it from day to day or week to week. Like Crazy Dick, I went to sleep.
To those who say I short, you obviously are new. My record on the boards has not been perfect, but like many on here who have defended Noront from the beginning, you should never question my love. I have been transparent in even my sales in the past, so all i can say is stick it ... Shorting is risky for two reasons - loss potential of more than 100% and no tax writeoff on the loss of capital gains. I never short and never will.
Check out who the first person to post on this board was last year. That will tell the story.
So I thank my friends who have supported me the past 24 hours, even if they disagreed. The share price did not drop 20% after the news so I guess things are looking up. It could be that having more frank discussion on here is keeping the stock from being pumped up before news and then dropping right after. That and the TA is on our side at the moment (right Coswil :)
All I can say is that I can respect those that are holding everything for the future of $10 or $20 of higher. Your patience is commendable. I will hold some for a long time, but will also sell when we hit a certain point. A double is still a double. I can guarantee you that I will likely sell some at $6.50 if only to take out the original investment and keep the free shares left behind.
Many on here are playing a game of blackjack where they keep doubling their bet on every new hand. It is risky. Too much in the pot and you might go bust. Anyone on a margin over $5 would have seen this with the recent price drop. Your bet was called and you were forced to surrender half your hand.
I received an email from a long time holder who shared with me what he did with some of the profits he cashed in on earlier this year when the stock hit $7. He sold below $5 but was a long term holder so his average was still under a buck. It was a great story. Similar to mine. Our families were blessed by the events between December 2006 and December 2007. And we are always thankful to Richard Nemis who made it possible.
Here's looking forward to more increases in share price and smart investing. Thanks to the many intelligent posters on here who are contributing each day. I look forward to sharing more thought in the future.
M1.