Misfit's Mid-Afternoon Musings for Monday, August 11, 2008
posted on
Aug 11, 2008 02:35PM
NI 43-101 Update (September 2012): 11.1 Mt @ 1.68% Ni, 0.87% Cu, 0.89 gpt Pt and 3.09 gpt Pd and 0.18 gpt Au (Proven & Probable Reserves) / 8.9 Mt @ 1.10% Ni, 1.14% Cu, 1.16 gpt Pt and 3.49 gpt Pd and 0.30 gpt Au (Inferred Resource)
Hi All,
Was away all morning and just checked the price. $2.75. I think we were here a few weeks back. The question we all have is why?
Manipulation or market. Global economics or Canada statistics. I am sure it all plays a part.
What I am sure we can agree on is that the entire market is in the dumper and has been for some time. There are very few bright lights out there. All things being considered, I would consider Noront as being one of the bright lights due to their cash position, active work on three properties, and potential. Many companies have potential, but most of the juniors I am following outside of the ROF are not in good cash positions or very active. Even with these low SPs we are still in the best position to bounce very high when the market turns around.
I believe a few people may have misunderstood my last musing which focussed on Richard. In no way did I intend to say that he should leave. This is his baby, has been since the early 90s, and he deserves every prop, kudo, and high five for bringing us here and for allowing Noront to be a bright light in this market. We were listed #1 for mining on the TSX Venture for a reason, and much of that is due to him.
All that being said, I do believe that though Richard will likely always be the captain of the ship, there may come a time when he may decide to delegate some managerial or other duties to other people. I know that he is building a good technical team but as this story grows bigger more specialization will be required.
If we judge Noront just on market cap, we see that in November 2006 they had a cap of around $12M dollars. About 60 million shares at .18 or so cents.
After Windfall broke, this market cap averaged about $45M on 90 million issued shares. I know we reached $1.07 but when we look at the price after the four month PP hold, the price was around .50 cents or so.
After Double Eagle broke, we had a cap between $270M to $630M. This is based on 90M shares at a price of $3 to $7.
After the latest PP which brought us to 120M shares, we now stand at a market of around $320M.
What is the point you ask. The company at this point, even at the crappy share price we closed at today is worth close to 30X what it was two years ago. During that time, we brought in a couple of high quality GEOs, a CFO, a camp manager or two and made some of the part-timer consultants full-time. And or course outsourced some duties to IBK and Agoracom.
My point here is that while Richard is fully capable of running a company, there is a huge difference between running a 12M dollar company and a billion dollar company. Not in terms of his experience as he has great experience, but in terms of focus, energy, and daily demands. Take todays outstanding shares and multiply by $7 and you get around $840M.
These are big numbers compared to 12M and all within the last two years. While Noront is still an exploration company and the market value is based on reserves and potential, it will take a very seasoned team of people to begin to turn this into a production company and sustain a much higher market cap. At some point the drill results will run out, the reserves will be known, and the ore will need to be processed. Unless the properties are sold or JV'd, it will be up to Noront to do the work. Mr. Nemis is fully capable on leading this effort based on his and Joh Harvey's past experience, but it is not McFaulds I am concerned about. It is the opportunities that lie within the other properties.
Mr. Nemis greatest skills come from being a lawyer. Making the deals and making the company shine brightly with every contract that he signs. His track record is almost inpeccable in this regard. A look at some NRs last year will show how me outright renegotiated many of the property deals Noront had with its JV partners and claim owners due to the new value of the share price.
Where a claim owner was to receive 100K shares, they now received 15K. For those who negotiate contracts, you know how hard it is to change terms after the fact, especially when it is to the detriment of one party. What this shows me is that this man really has some powerful negotiating skills. Very impressive.
So in my mind he will always be running the company as long as his mind and health are sound. But should he be running everything? When the company was only worth 12M dollars and they were focussed on two drills on two properties, the workday was much shorter than when all hell broke loose. Now we have drills everywhere and we still have some very good looking properties that should still be looked at. Lizars and Hunter's Point come to mind, not to mention driving Burnt Hill forward.
That was the question of my last musing. I just wanted to ensure he is not streching himself to thin, especially as McFaulds and Windfall begin to release a plethora of NRs this fall. Having a solid executive team, which he is starting to build, is necessary when you are running a company worth 1B dollars on paper. It is also necessary to ensure that business opportunities are not limited due to personal limitations such as time or focus. We all only have 18 hours each day to work and only so much can be done. More grace is given when there is $12M on the line as opposed to $1B. We moved from small spec money to institutional money. More will continue to be expected. His time and focus is in the right place - at McFaulds, but I hold Noront for all of the other properties as well. While I am sure I can use more patience, I would love to get more updates from Windfall Lake, Burnt Hill, Mexico, and the plans for other properties.
Drill results are great when they come out but I would prefer to see an update on some of the other properties more than once a quarter, even if it just to say the team is working hard.
Speaking of which, isn't the latest interim financials due out soon? The last one was filed on March 31 - over four months ago. Not sure is there are regulations around these filings, but it would be nice to know that the new CFO can get these out according to schedule. Not worried, just wanting to review and read something different while we wait out the drills.
M1.