HIGH-GRADE NI-CU-PT-PD-ZN-CR-AU-V-TI DISCOVERIES IN THE "RING OF FIRE"

NI 43-101 Update (September 2012): 11.1 Mt @ 1.68% Ni, 0.87% Cu, 0.89 gpt Pt and 3.09 gpt Pd and 0.18 gpt Au (Proven & Probable Reserves) / 8.9 Mt @ 1.10% Ni, 1.14% Cu, 1.16 gpt Pt and 3.49 gpt Pd and 0.30 gpt Au (Inferred Resource)

Free
Message: Misfit's Morning Musings for August 29. 2009

Misfit's Morning Musings for August 29. 2009

posted on Aug 29, 2008 07:53AM

Hi All,

It is great to see the quarterly report and MD&A out on the SEDAR site. I must say that this is one of the most informative documents Noront has put out in awhile.

There are a few things that struck me as I read the document:

1) Official mention of a future split between the ROF assets and the Windfall assets. "Over the next year, management of Noront anticipates being able to separate its assets that are outside the Ring of Fire area so as to finance and manage them distinctly from Noront’s primary Double Eagle properties."

We have been talking about this possibility since last September. The reason: it just makes sense from a business point of view. When a company is on the verge having two large scale mining camps and is trading at extremely conservative share prices for the value of both, there are business drivers in place to split the company into two entities. The first has to do with control. While Richard is in the driver's seat, he does not personally own 51% of the shares. While we have a shareholders rights plan, this just protects us from a hostile takeover. Essentially, it allows all available suitors to submit a bid that could be better then the first suitors. It also allows time for proper evaluation of a takeover bid.

Any prospective bidder today would get the keys to NOT's kingdom if successful. This includes ROF and Windfall. From what I have read, the other properties can pretty much be discounted to "future considerations" as they have discontinued Hungary and Hunter's Point and are not pursuing Mexico at this time. Like an NHL hockey team, the stars are on the ice, a few prospects have been put on waivers, and there is still some draft picks that might show up on the ice at a later date.

Back to the split. I agree with Glorieux that we would see more value in terms of our NOT shares if we were to split off Windfall (and the others) and let this trade on their own. Why? With the spotlight on ROF, any news from the other properties does not have an impact to the SP. The market is conditioned to evaulating NOT solely on the ROF and the nickel/PGMs. Even the recent Chrome news did not have an impact.

Long time NOTTERS know what significant potential exists at Windfall. Imagine having a Windfall stock managed by the same Noront team trading at .50 cents and they announce millions of ounces of Gold near surface (which is what they are ramping). I believe we would see full value for each property if each was represented in the market on their own.

2) Another thing that struck me is that while they were completely up to date on the ROF information, including the recents reports, they did not update us on any Windfall news as of April 30, 2008. There was a lot of Windfall history presented by no additional information about the events since then when they were tapping on visible Gold at the F-11 location. Somebody is being tightlipped and I believe it is to allow management time to sort out the future company structure before making the current Noront too big of a target should Windfall prove itself to be an overall multi ounce per tonne deposit. We know we have hit some excellent results at Hole 06-100 and now F-11, and the high grades are a sign the area is ripe for a Windfall.

3) The JVs have increased Noront's value by an additional 21.5 million without a drill being put into the ground. I had to do the math a few times as I though Richard has added a zero somewhere :) We have known that the 2008 placement brought in 26 million with another 12.5 when the warrants were accelerated. That is 38.5 million. But Noront lists the money raised as 60M. The remainder coming from stock options and JV. Knowing that the insider trading has been minimal in terms of exercising stock options, the rest of the cash (21.5M) was due to JVs. Each JV was a combination of upfront cash and stock options. Each time I read a JV news release the upfront cash payment seemed minor in the big picture (100K here, 150 there, ...) But it is the issued stock by each company that must make up that additional amount. We in essence have become a form of Pinetree in that we hold shares in many small juniors who have JV'd with NOT.

The 60M is actually just the start as most of these juniors have committed to multi-million dollar drill programs over the next couple of years. They are footing the bill to drill while Noront remains in control and (to quote the MD&A) will allows have at least 50% rights to these properties.

Each dollar that a JV spends to explore a different piece of the ROF pie is a dollar that we did not have to raise through a future PP. Sure we lose out on some future full value of a particular claim in the area but it is the JV that is accepting the risk by putting up the cash. If they hit a dud, the only cost to Noront was the ink from Richard's pen as he signed the deal.

In the end this is one of the best MD&As from Noront in a long time. It is also primed as a communication tool to new investors as it goes into very good detail in an editied way. In the past they would include the unabridged history of each property, essentially cut and pasting info from the previous one as they went along. This time I see a completey revised MD&A that should be able to allow new investors a chance to quickly see what the company is doing and how they are positioned financially.

Excellent work Richard and team. Though this one was a month late, I now see that it is just the start of what I believe will be a news blitz for the weeks leading up to the October AGM.

M1.

Share
New Message
Please login to post a reply