HIGH-GRADE NI-CU-PT-PD-ZN-CR-AU-V-TI DISCOVERIES IN THE "RING OF FIRE"

NI 43-101 Update (September 2012): 11.1 Mt @ 1.68% Ni, 0.87% Cu, 0.89 gpt Pt and 3.09 gpt Pd and 0.18 gpt Au (Proven & Probable Reserves) / 8.9 Mt @ 1.10% Ni, 1.14% Cu, 1.16 gpt Pt and 3.49 gpt Pd and 0.30 gpt Au (Inferred Resource)

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Message: Genuity Report - Valuation Issues

Genuity Report - Valuation Issues

posted on Oct 24, 2008 09:00AM

Guys I just want to make 2 points on what I read. Thx QQ-girl for posting the report by the way.

Why this value is too low! Even though most of us would be happy to get above $2.00 - here is where genuity goes ary.

1. Scope Study - I know Ni right now is in the $4 range. But from what I have been reading most mines (more then 50% in the world) lose money and will shut down at price levels of $15,000 per ton (others would prefer not to deplete their resources at current levels). This is roughly $7-8lbs - break-even nickel price for most mines (we make money at these levels and we only have $2MM tons.... hmm). So in the nearterm, we have a glut of Nickel on the market (nickel was at $27lbs - so with a slowdown expect a glut) but long-term only the mines that produce nickel as a by product when minning some other material will continue producing. So the $10 price estimate in the Noront Scope Study, I think will come to pass in the next 18 months... (I am using 18 months so that no-one calls me out on this... at 12 months people would call me crazy.) Never-the-less the price of nickel will return to $10lbs or we will stop using this material all together... no other options. So their $5.50 estimate is too low - before the quickest timeframe the road can be built we will be much closer to $10 then the $5 mark.

2. The chromite best case only has us getting 2% of insite value. And given what we know of the area - the tonnages of the best case appear to be what we know already, by my own math and d12's post earlier today (d12 is a much more reliable source then genuity anyway). They are valueing the Chromite at over $600MM in the best case. Which should be more like $4Billion. But at least they gave value to the Chromite! This is a first!

I think they are trying to keep the number low so that people would actually read their report because telling people we are still worth $7.00 per share makes you sound crazy. But I honestly believe we are...

We just need to be spending our money proving up the chromite.



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