Misfit's Morning Musings for Monday, October 27, 2008
posted on
Oct 27, 2008 09:36AM
NI 43-101 Update (September 2012): 11.1 Mt @ 1.68% Ni, 0.87% Cu, 0.89 gpt Pt and 3.09 gpt Pd and 0.18 gpt Au (Proven & Probable Reserves) / 8.9 Mt @ 1.10% Ni, 1.14% Cu, 1.16 gpt Pt and 3.49 gpt Pd and 0.30 gpt Au (Inferred Resource)
Hi All,
I am just as floored as most other shareholders as to the events of the last 24 hours. I am not sure when the deal that was recently announced in the NR was reached, but my guess is that there was a lot of last minute bargaining taking place this weekend.
What should have been the most highly anticipated, controversial, and teeth grinding AGM has now had some of the air taken out of the balloon. I do not believe anybody could have predicted this outcome.
While I have not taken the time to DD the backgrounds of the new board members, I will say that it appears on the surface that this will have been the best result given the proxy war. Like two gamblers betting their life savings on a coin toss, I believe both sides chose not to flip the coin at the end of the day. In other words we have a compromise which cost both sides but should prove to be valuable for all in the future.
I am in favor of the compromise though I wish we did not have to get to this point in the first place. I believe we all wished that. But reality changed a few short weeks ago with the dissident proxy and we have been forced to accept this new reality.
It is actually not that new. Though the retail shareholders represent 50% of the ownership, we require a complete voting group in order to ensure our wishes are met. In reality, organizing this 50% is a very difficult thing to do (as many on here who have worked to diligently the last couple of weeks can attest to). With between 4000 and 6000 shareholders is a daunting task which will likely need to be repeated should the new board choose to perform actions which do not consider the interests of retail investors. On the other side, the institutional 50% need only organize a few players. This is a huge advantage.
I believe the show of strength as retail we exhibited the past three weeks played a large part on the compromise solution today. Though it was up in the air as to which side would win, the fact remained that battle lines were drawn and there would only be one winner tomorrow. The stakes were high and in the end I believe reason prevailed. We are all investors in this company in one of the best investments I have been a part of. Through all of this drama the fact remains that the McFaulds property still holds the promise based on initial drilling results to be the next big mining camp in Canada.
This weekend I spent some time trying to put myself in the shoes of the institutions. They report to their bosses, often wealthy investors. They took a chance on Noront and bought in big at $4 and $5 in this same year of 2008. As the share price dropped I am sure they started to feel that they were losing control of their investment. While a complete board replacement was an overreaction, it was likely done to preserve what they has invested.
At the same time we as retail have suffered the same blow in terms of share price. Nobody's fault due to market factors but it did create that element of fear which causes people to react. I believe that if we had been trading at $8 we would not have seen the participation by retail in this proxy war. The amazing effort that everyone put forward the past three weeks was done to allow us a future in which to allow our share price to grow without a massive dilution taking place through a low priced future PP.
I want to end my musing with some thought on Richard Nemis. I had written a musing back on August 8, 2008 where I talked about Richard stepping down at some point. The reaction on this board to that musing was strong and I still have some of the bruises on my face. But I have never been one to not throw out an argument here and there in order to stir things up a little.
Here is a snippet of my musing from August 8, 2008:
"Noront is first and foremost an exploration company. I believe the major investors want this to fast track into a production company or be sold off for a profit. It takes a lot of effort and experience to do that. While IBK and JP may be assisting on some fronts, and while we have some excellent new hires in the geos, it may not be enough. To split the company and have a CEO focus on one half (the exploration and Windfall) and a subsidiary CEO focus on the other (McFaulds) may not be a bad thing.
This is not a Richard bash. I am one of his biggest fans as many of you know. But at some point these questions will be asked by those with big money. What is the succession plan long term when it comes to these gray haired old codgers? At what point do they say "enough, I want a break from all this and want to scale back in order to enjoy fishing again?" Are they there now?"
The point of my musing was to say that every good things eventually comes to an end. Richard has been with Noront since 1980. That is 28 years. I believe Richard will walk away with his head high tomorrow, and will know that he was the founder of the company that may become a household name in the years to come as the area around McFaulds begins to bring many, including himself wealth.
I am disappointed and saddened that Richard could not leave the company on his own terms, but I believe there will be a sense of relief as he plans his next fishing trip and keeps his eyes on the company he built from the ground up. The events and work of the past 14 months would be trying for any single man. Richard performed this work with integrity and drive.
Tomorrow is a new chapter in the Noront book. If the new board really wants to take this property and company to new levels, I believe they will do that. If they all bail for a quick buck, there is not much we can do outside of organize again and keep them accountable.
At the end of the day the second scenario was what we faced as a reality tomorrow. At the moment we as retail have a new hope of a different outcome and the possibility of being able to see this company we love rise to new heights.
I am not sure if Richard has ever read one of my musings but if he reads this one, I want to say "Thank you for restoring my faith in Canadian Juniors and ethical CEOs." Your legacy will not be forgotten".
M1.