At the end of the day
posted on
Oct 27, 2008 02:53PM
NI 43-101 Update (September 2012): 11.1 Mt @ 1.68% Ni, 0.87% Cu, 0.89 gpt Pt and 3.09 gpt Pd and 0.18 gpt Au (Proven & Probable Reserves) / 8.9 Mt @ 1.10% Ni, 1.14% Cu, 1.16 gpt Pt and 3.49 gpt Pd and 0.30 gpt Au (Inferred Resource)
At the end of the day the winds of change have moved in and life as of tomorrow will be different.
For better or for worse, many are arguing for both cases but I believe that with control in the hands of the funds such as Rousseau, Sprott, and Pinetree we will see movements that will cause Noront to trade in much more positive terms.
It is important to note that this was not just the Rousseau the past three weeks. Irwin needed support of the other institutions and received it. The last time I checked these three were not married to each other. They more reflect a minority government than anything else, each needing each other to keep a confidence vote from occurring.
Now that this is no longer Richard Nemis and friends VS. the institutions, I believe we may see more stability long term. Dilution is inevitable down the road, but I do not believe they can direct this new paper to just themselves. There has to be some kind of a monopoly investment rule against that from happening.
So while we retailers sit back and watch from our arm chairs, the big boys will have to play nice with each other. And that may work to our advantage.
I always wondered what was in this for Sprott. What was in this for Pinetree. Now that the revolution is over it is time for them to govern and do the work. The break even point for Sprott is likely a lot less than Rousseau as Sprott has been involved since Windfall at .50 cents, so Rousseau will need to tread wisely in terms of this new coalition they have created.
It is important to note that Richard Nemis lost control of this company in the days following the Windfall NRs back in December 2006. The 50% share dilution at that time was not filled by him or his close associates. But by the likes of Sprott and Pinetree.
The latest round of PP this year just raised the stakes. I was shocked to see that Richard only had 1.6 million shares as of the last Financial statements. Barely 1% of the float. It should be noted that none of the original board of directors owned shares in Noront according to the package that I received recently.
Richard's authority to lead was in control of the funds since the first PP. Once the stakes got too high they decided to move into a new direction. What will be very interesting is to see who the new President will be, and what the other executives might look like.
I am sure Richard knew of the risks that mass dilution brought to Noront since the days it traded at .18 cents back in November 2006. At the same time the money from the institutions was needed to keep the drills moving and to quickly define resources at both Windfall and McFaulds. In two weeks I will have approached my two year anniversary as an investor in Noront.
One thing I know is that none of us would be here today if it were not for the funds that the institutions risked in both those PPs. I am not defending their ethics here, just the business risk they assumed. The ramp and the four drills cost money that they put up. We benefited from that. Or at least those from the original core that took some profits last year.
In the upcoming months we will see a rise in Noront's SP should the commodities rebound as many expect. Nickel is worth 25% of what it was a year ago so we should always keep this in mind before pumping a return of the share price to new highs. The highs of the past were supported by high commodity prices. As Noront is an explorer and future producer of these commodities, we should always keep in mind the correlation of metal prices to share price.
Love them or hate them, the funds provided the quick injection of funds required to continue to fund the programs and keep the money in the bank. 50+ million dollars that would have been very hard to raise through us retail in such a short time.
It is true that we will have to ride their coat tails in the upcoming months and years, but we have been riding them since December 2006 anyway. The only difference this month is that they took a shot at control with their share ownership percentage.
I expect we will see less volatility over the next number of months. While the funds may still play the games, it should be remembered that they are now in control with a minority government and as such must please the key players. This will make for a very interesting year coming up.
So ride the coat tails we will. When to get off the coat will be the difficult decision.
M1.