Things are about to get really boring
posted on
Oct 29, 2008 05:00PM
NI 43-101 Update (September 2012): 11.1 Mt @ 1.68% Ni, 0.87% Cu, 0.89 gpt Pt and 3.09 gpt Pd and 0.18 gpt Au (Proven & Probable Reserves) / 8.9 Mt @ 1.10% Ni, 1.14% Cu, 1.16 gpt Pt and 3.49 gpt Pd and 0.30 gpt Au (Inferred Resource)
It's only been a day since the AGM and suddenly the board is taking swipes at each other.
Like a brigade of soldiers who fought hard to protect their country, the day after a bloody D-Day and we all start fighting about who should be first in the mess tent line.
I just want to throw something out that I believe many need to hear:
"Life for the next 2 months and maybe longer around here is going to get extremely boring."
Richard went out with a media bang in the month of October updating us on everything related to the properties, the drills, and the company. He did not leave one stone unturned when it comes to Windfall, the Eagles, and the Chrome. Though drill results will continue to come in, those will likely be more of the same which is great but at the same time not enough to wake up the bear.
The company board has just been re-organized. The company is now being run by two CEOs, one from each side. Anybody who has ever worked in an organization where two people were in charge knows that either both quit or the stronger one takes the position. Like two gun fighters waiting for the other one to flinch.
With the board re-org comes the search for a permanent CEO. Committees will be formed, interviews held and contracts signed. Then of course the break-in period whereby he meets all of the staff, reviews the financials, meets with the JV partners, talks to the guys at IBK, Agoracom, ...
This was all in a days work for a guy like Richard who was with this company for the past 18 years. It will likely take the new guy, when there is a new guy a few months to get going.
In the meantime things will get really boring. Assay results will likely go to the board first and meetings will follow, arguments over NR wordings, .... We are going to be lucky to see a NR this year in my humble opinion. We have a new board and they all have other lives and boards they belong to. Boards generally meet every quarter though I am sure this one will meet more often. If not things will really get boring fast.
The problem when things get boring is that people make up stuff to kill the time before the next substantial news item. We could not last a day before infighting started. What happens when a week, a month, two months, three months, ... goes by without a word from Noront. Many of the originals on here know what this feels like as even Richard kept us in the dark for a good period of time between April and July 2007. It is what forced his hand with Agoracom being signed up. A mini-shareholder revolt back then.
What will be needed now is plain old patience and a hope that our investment is one that will mature. Maturity takes time, as will the factors that are required to take the share price higher. The end of a recession, higher commodity prices, increased cash, return of funds to the markets, ...
The speed boat we are used to is now a cruise ship. They can turn but it takes a lot of patience when you are used to the turn of a wheel in a jet boat.
I enjoy the comaradery on this board and will continue to post and check in from time to time. But at this point we have add the DD we need to make the choice of whether to stay in long term or sell and try something else during this boring stretch.
Personally, I sold half during the AGM as Mungall's map clearly showed that FWR is sitting on a swack of potential as identified through the VTEMS. At one time I day traded FWR back in 2006. Then it got boring for a long time while the Windfall ramp was being built. At the price it was at Tuesday, I decided to buy some while the AGM was still going on before news hit the market. This was not a blind jump as I have been following FWR for two years and recently re-did my DD on them due to the JV Noront has with them at Windfall. How long will I hold? Each day is evaluated on its own merits, but I do believe they will return to .25 once their drill results come out. Can I guarantee this? No. But it makes sense to me in some way so I went with it.
What changed? Not my faith in Noront. If I could step away from the computer and come back in a year I am sure I would be happy. But we are at the bottom of the worst market in history and even rock solid companies are trading well below sane levels. I play tennis with a CEO of (what was) a billion dollar supplier to the Oil Sands industry. His share price has dropped from $18 in August to $2.50 yesterday. I almost bought after talking with him Monday but I do not likely trading in US dollars. Shame. It climbed $1.17 to $3.60 today. About 48%. In one day. I knew it was undervalued but am not kicking myself. It's just that I do not like trading in US funds during currency uncertainties.
The long term investment in this stock of which I now have half of my portfolio now will likely swing back and forth until the market decides its time to value this properly. I predict we will see some lower prices as tax-loss selling comes into play the next two months, but I also predict we will see some higher prices as rumours and consolidation starts to take place. Those good at swing trading will likely do well during this time.
I also know that there are an incredible amount of stocks out there that are undervalued that have less risk overall than what Noront faces today. We are sitting very good in terms of cash position and properties but it will take time to eliminate the risk of the unknown, and that is the new structure put in place Tuesday.
Rather than sit, walk away from the computer, and come back in a year, I want to be active finding these plays and turning some green. Hopefully using some profits to buy a bigger position in Noront than what I started with this week.
I am not recommending a selloff. A buy at these prices is a good long term strategy. Holding is proper if there are no other opportunities that offer a higher predicted short term ROI. But it also does not have to be an all or nothing thing either. I am speaking to those like me who were in 100%.
The key is that we will all start to make decisions and will start to appear on other boards and sites. 100% loyalty to Noront is no longer an option in my opinion as the masters have changed and time will tell if their intentions are pure. It is not about being a traitor. It is about being a trader.
I have no reason to think that Noront cannot reach new levels of share price in the future. The key question is when will that future arrive? I have been patient with this since my re-buy in May 2008 and in retrospect it was a good thing even with the fall in share price as my other picks would have been a much greater loss.
But the garage sale has started and the prices are ridiculous out there. Today I have my foot half in Noront and half in the world.
One thing that I enjoyed about the former board is that we did share a lot of tips with each other, some of them good and some of them bad. But some really did pay off. If I had shared my tip yesterday some of you would have made a nice return today. But this is an off-topic item so most would not have seen it in time.
I will continue to post here but I will also be returning to the gong show that is stockhouse to filter through the bashing, pump and dumps, propaganda, and advertisements as some morsels of good information that do appear from time to time. If you see me there talking about a stock please feel free to PM me before you buy. I may have owned it one day and not the next. The example I gave today of NOA:NYSE is one example. I likely would have taken the 48% return and waited for the next underpriced gem.
I do believe we should keep this board 100% focussed on NOT, the market, and the ROF but I do invite others to chat it up with me through PMs or other boards from time to time. I am not leaving but will not be around as much at the same time. Papa needs a brand new pair of shoes as the current ones are a little scuffy.
May be all prosper in 2009,
M1.