Elections and stock indices................ next
posted on
Nov 05, 2008 04:08AM
NI 43-101 Update (September 2012): 11.1 Mt @ 1.68% Ni, 0.87% Cu, 0.89 gpt Pt and 3.09 gpt Pd and 0.18 gpt Au (Proven & Probable Reserves) / 8.9 Mt @ 1.10% Ni, 1.14% Cu, 1.16 gpt Pt and 3.49 gpt Pd and 0.30 gpt Au (Inferred Resource)
Its been quiet around here as of the last few days. I'm sure that will change with any news that sparks a rally. The more important thing to be concentrating on right now is where the markets should be heading with Obama winning the US election with a pretty comfortable cushion.
Historically, from what I understand, Republicans being elected into office means a rally for the markets. Democrats being voted in is much the opposite. As such what should we see. Well, in past years I would be expecting a nosedive in the markets short term because Obama was elected. However; because of the market meltdown of the last month I don't really see any substantial downside to the election at all. We may have had a better rally if McCain had won, but with the bottoming out IMHO of the markets I see a slower more careful upswing in the market emerging notwithstanding political implications.
That said, I don't see any particular short term effect on the markets with Obama being elected into office. I think November will be a turn around of sorts in the mood of the market and with Christmas coming a general upswing that "should" carry through into 2009. The level of this reversal in market sentiment could be minimal, however I believe a vast majority of the tax selloff season is already now behind us. This results in less of a downsweep of the market in mid December as investors have already taken their losses and are now sitting on the side waiting to get back in (which could well be right now). We must remember though that we have a 30 day waiting period whereby you cannot buy back into the same company without losing your tax writeoff for losses. This of course means that the buy in period (at least in Canada) may not come until mid to late November due to the writeoffs of October.
So here's what I think and please comment because I'd love to hear some feedback.
The market will show a significant change to the positive post Remeberance Day. This would be from November 11 to December 15. Any further tax write off selling would start taking place after this period again, but as indicated earlier, this should be reduced due to the expediated tax selloff in October.
This should stimulate some thought. This is important because it will no doubt effect NOT. Impending news may also have positive/negative effects on NOT's share price.
Conclusion: NOT's share price is under 1.00 right now. It was down to around .60 cents last month. It's moving sideways right now due to uncertainties in the market and discomfort in the lack of market moving news of late. We know the price will go up. If you don't know that you should be selling now and getting into something you feel more comfortable with. That said. At least keep a bit in NOT so that your not crying as hard when we move back up. I guess I'm saying you have to be somewhat dizzy in the head to be selling even one share of Noront at this phase of the game. Better to hold some cash from sales of other stocks and either buy in now or hold and hope for something to downtick us before the next big rally comes. I'm doing a bit of both.
If our new management holds to the hopes and dreams of Richard Nemis and his board we will be fine. If not I am even more convinced I want more shares because I'll need them to make any substantial profit when they sell the company off. This is ugly to talk about, but we need to keep reality within reach. So again. I would be thinking seriously of moving cash into Noront while the price is under 1.00. I can't see any loss relative to that scenerio forward moving.
All the best to the NOT investment community and God Bless.
Mustangman