I can remember when OIL was at $145 a barrel (a mere 5 months ago) all the analysis were saying it is heading to $200 to 250 a barrel; on Fridays close the price of OIL was $49.93. I guess these analysis were wrong.

What is scary out there is that there are some saying that we are headed for another major decline in the markets and others who are saying the bottom in very close to in. Who one believes is I guess who you are more comfortable with, but in the end nobody really knows and at some point we will see the markets change direction well in advance of the economony. The question is when?

Below are two individuals most will probably know and there recent views:

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Opening Comments

Bulletin:

Volume Reversal (tm) projections now point to Dow Industrials 6500 and S&P 500 640. Lower projections and/or a greater decline can occur. I suspect we could see a bounce into or just after Thanksgiving, but I would use any rally tries to establish inverse stock index positions. We're in a crash scenario! Ultimately, the Dow Industrials could see levels between 2500 and 4000 - perhaps lower between now and 2010. I did feel a 'honeymoon' rally for President Obama could unfold next year, but the big question is from what level.

My preference is gold or cash. I am concerned about the viability of the US Dollar and am serious in my notion that assets will need to ultimately invested in non-dollar assets. The US is essentially bankrupt. It's a horror story that I thought I would never live to see in my lifetime - a story that is frankly worse than what our grandparents endured during the Great Depression.

Leibovit Files
Friday, November 21, 2008

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11/21/08
Prepare Now for a Market Bottom + Stock Picks

You can't watch a business television show today without some pundit lamenting over the bottom of the market. Have we reached it? How low can we go? Much of this discussion is folly. I looked at a chart today that compared the current decline in the S&P 500 vs. the last two crashes in 1973 and 2000. What is striking isn't the similar peak-to-trough price declines but the fact that the speed of this current crash has been about twice as fast as the others.

CLICK HERE for a chart comparing crashes.

http://www.thestreet.com/tsc/common/...

During the oil crisis of 1973-1974, the market fell around 47% in 21 months. The dot-com bubble slide in 2000 to 2002 caused the market to fall 47.4% in 31 months. Our current decline started in October 2007, and as of yesterday, the S&P 500 is down 48% in just over 13 months.

So the question is, what is more important when evaluating whether a bottom has been put in place -- the magnitude of the price decline or the length of time of a bear market

There are many ways to interpret the data. Some market pundits would say that the most recent percentage decline has been one of the worst on record when we compare it with other such corrections. So we could be getting close to a bottom.

There is no doubt that stocks look cheap. The problem with this analysis is that just because a stock is cheap, it doesn't necessarily mean that it has stopped going down. The main concern is that fundamentals haven't bottomed, so even though the price-to-earnings ratio, or P/E, looks cheap, there is no confidence in the "E." Therefore, it's difficult to value whether anything is in fact cheap.

Other analysts and pundits would say that since this correction has lasted only 13 months, the markets could go down even more, especially if history repeats itself and it takes another year to sort this out. Since there are no rules out on how long a correction needs to take place, this is also a hard case to make.

What makes this correction more complicated is the fact that there are so many different problems that we need to fix, No. 1 being that investor confidence needs to be restored in the U.S. and world economies, as well as in the financial markets. In order for that to happen, the financial services industry needs to begin lending again while continuing to deleverage, the auto industry needs a complete overhaul even if it gets the $25 billion from the government, the housing market has to stabilize, foreclosures need to slow and a plan must be put in place that helps people hold on to their homes. These issues must be addressed quickly in order to stop the unemployment rate from getting out of control.

I believe that over time the problems will be fixed, as President-Elect Obama has a sense of urgency and is putting together a strong team to deal with all of these issues. It will take time, but the market is a discounting mechanism and has priced in a lot of this bad news already. The selling has been indiscriminate -- large cap, small cap, high quality, low quality. Everything is down and down hard. So while it is very difficult to predict whether or not we are close to a bottom, the markets have priced in a lot of bad news and will anticipate a recovery long before the headlines get better.

Owning large-cap, high-quality companies that have strong balance sheets and good yield support, such as Chevron, Kraft and Pepsi.

Being diversified with an overweight allocation in the recession-resistant industries - health care and staples -- also makes a lot of sense. It's worth giving a look at Abbot Labs, Bristol-Myersand Procter & Gamble. If you invest wisely in recession-proof strategies, your portfolio will be resistant to additional decline when a market bottom finally arrives.

This article appeared on RealMoney, a subscription site of TheStreet.com, earlier this morning. TheStreet.com is offering this as a service to our readers of our free, flagship site. CLICK HERE for a free trial to RealMoney..

by Jim Cramer

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