This article may be a fun popular psychology read (if your believe that all people can be put into only two categories which, in turn, explain their "Black Swan" investing success). But, in my opinion, the paper trivializes and over-simplifies the Black Swan concept, and wrongly applies it to personality traits of the investor.

Black Swan events and processes happen in the real world, not inside our heads. The melt-down of the US real estate, financial and credit markets is not a Black Swan event. Yes, its consequences so far are enormous. But the meltdown and consequences were not unexpected or improbable.

If the meltdown was a surprise to you, perhaps you simply were uninformed (regardless of which brain you have). One way to catch up is to look up "I.O.U.S.A" in google, either the best selling 2008 book or the movie, which was nominated for the 2008 Sundance Grand Jury Prize. Or read Peter D. Schiff's "The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets," 2008. Or go to Jim Sinclair's web page: WWW.JSMINESET.COM. Or read Bill Bonner's commentaries on the web, etc.

The chromite discovery zone in the ROF, on the other hand, I believe is an actual Black Swan geological reality. The drilling and assay results so far are physical facts that indicate a huge and rich chromite deposit where it should not be. It was not predicted by past mining experience, and was completely unexpected. Most of the mining investing public, and even some members of this forum, still don't understand how unusual and valuable this ROF chromite zone is.

The way to make money on Black Swan events, regardless of your brain type, is:

First, be aware that Black Swan events and processes can happen.

Second, read both of Taleb's books to better understand how to recognize Black Swans in the financial and economic world.

Third, be a contrary investor.

And fourth, apply the usual money management and long-term trading tools to minimize your losses on a Black Swan situation (such as NOT.V), while you wait for the investing public to catch on.

Easier said than done, of course. But if you are unwilling to take those four steps, then how can you expect to make money from actual Black Swan events when they come along? Knowledge is power.

Regards,

Rek