Good evening Sum; I have also spent the last several hours pondering cause and effect of what is happening in the ROF. It does seem that for every theory, there are indicators that refute it. For instance BMK; they may seem to be riding on NOT's shirttail, but how about SPQ. They have news of their own and yet they did nothing today. FWR has no recent news, and is up yet KWG has news and lots of volume but is not up. FNC is drilling and is up, but PRB is doing nothing and is also up. There seems to be a lack of news, or holdback of same, but yet there has been news ( NOT,SPQ). The news doesn't seem to be the driving force, yet there is lots of retail action.
My synopsis tells me that there are differing groups involved here. Someone is definately accumulating in the ROF. They probably have some knowledge that the common retailer doesn't. There is also a lot of longs (most of us on this forum included) that are not in the market, including reports of 55%of shares held by institutions (if they haven't sold they will be holding long now). There seems though to be a lot of sellers too. It is difficult to picture anyone that has held this long, and selling today, although there was a lot of buying below a dollar and those may just be happy in todays market to be able to post a gain.
I am going to suggest that if the sellers today were the short term ones that are selling for the small gain, then they will be running out of shares early tomorrow, and we will see this SP take another leap forward. However if it takes another jump tomorrow there will be a new flock that bought today and will be taking profit tomorrow.
This market is a very difficult thing to forecast, however I much better enjoy the difficulty trying to forecast the jumps, rather than trying to dodge the dumps. Tomorrow will be an interesting opening. And yes, I have absolutely no idea what it is going to do. The market in general has a positive vibe to it though, so maybe that bodes well for us.
Regards
K