Bay St. sees hope for mining
posted on
Apr 20, 2009 03:39AM
NI 43-101 Update (September 2012): 11.1 Mt @ 1.68% Ni, 0.87% Cu, 0.89 gpt Pt and 3.09 gpt Pd and 0.18 gpt Au (Proven & Probable Reserves) / 8.9 Mt @ 1.10% Ni, 1.14% Cu, 1.16 gpt Pt and 3.49 gpt Pd and 0.30 gpt Au (Inferred Resource)
First quarter earnings
Peter Koven, Financial Post Published: Monday, April 20, 2009
Handout photoMiners work in a Barrick Gold mine. Two recent studies predict major hardships ahead for the mining industry, but also offer glimmers of hope.
With the first-quarter mining earnings season kicking off today, Bay Street is expecting something it only wished it could have seen last quarter: a relatively clean and accessible set of results.
The fourth quarter will go down as one of the messiest the mining industry has seen. The shocking collapse in basemetal prices last fall triggered a dizzying round of write-downs and negative mark-to-market price adjustments that overshadowed any good news the companies had to offer. Even the gold companies were dragged down by their basemetal exposure.
This time around, the base metals ended the quarter on the upswing, and the companies are certain to be more positive on their conference calls. The results will also look a lot less ugly after the companies mopped up their balance sheets in the fourth quarter through billions of dollars in various one-time charges.
"At the end of the day it will be a better and cleaner quarter, but the majority of any improvement in the first quarter will be driven more by the balance sheet than the income statement," said Desjardins Securities analyst John Hughes.
He noted that despite the remarkable rally in base metals that began in March, average prices in the quarter were still lower than they were in the fourth quarter. Copper, for example, averaged about US$1.60 a pound in Q1, compared with US$1.80 a pound in Q4.
"What we're more excited about is the second quarter. So far it's been a brilliant start," he added.
With the writedowns out of the way and the commodities seemingly back on track, investors will go back to scouring the results for the same metrics that occupied them in the past. More than ever, costs will top the list.
Over the past several years, costs to construct and operate mines soared to ridiculous levels as the prices for fuel, labour and raw materials all increased. Nowhere is that problem more apparent than the gold sector, where the companies have failed to make much money despite a sensational bullion market.
But even a global economic collapse has its advantages. Once the recession kicked in last fall, input prices started to fall dramatically, particularly for fuel. Yet the mining companies have not shown much benefit from that, largely because they lock in prices on their consumable items months in advance.
This could be the quarter where the benefits from lower costs start to kick in. At least investors hope so.
"I'm looking for some indication that cost creep has at worst stabilized. And then hopefully we'll see another couple of quarters where a reversal starts to set in," said Dennis da Silva, a resource fund manager at Middlefield Capital.
He acknowledged that items have been ordered and prices are locked in at higher rates, but said that there is "always room to renegotiate," especially for the large-cap companies. A number of companies have said they are doing just that.
The first major Canadian miner to report is Teck Cominco Ltd., which will announce its results after the close of markets tonight. With debt-laden Teck, all the focus from investors will be on how the company will continue to sell assets so that it can refinance its US$5.3-billion bridge loan due in October. They will also be watching to see if Teck drops its opposition to an equity offering and decides to do one given that its stock price has doubled in the last four weeks.
A reports has also emerged that Teck settled its metallurgical coal sales contracts at a respectable US$125 a tonne, and the company is certain to address the implications of that.
Another closely watched earnings report will be next week's Q1 release from Barrick Gold Corp., which will be the first full quarter under new chief executive Aaron Regent. Barrick is one of several cash-rich gold companies that are expected to be aggressive on acquisitions in the coming months.
Other companies reporting this week and next include Cameco Corp., Sherritt International Corp., Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd., Inmet Mining Corp., and Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan.