Reading through most of the posts saying "Not is the best..... FWR is the best.....Not has the biggest.....FWR has the biggest.......NOT is worthless... FWR is worthless ... etc., Noront evidently opened Pandora's Box with the 1 to 4 "still not official" offering. As most of the posters are Canadiens, I understand the emotional behaviour flying around lately.

Having shares of NOT & FWR in my portfolio, living in Europe and, dare I say so, presumably having a more distant and broader view over the past events, I asked myself a few questions.

First of all, what could propably be the reasons Noront surprises everyone with this 1 to 4 offering (let's not say take over). ..."Consolidation of the ROF gives a better future bargening position",..."together we are worth more".... that is what I read the most lately. Indeed.

Only, these are not reasons, these will be the consequences of said offering.

Could it be that NOT was forced to this offering? What is going on behind the scenes?

This is my PERSONAL take on recent events:

NOT board is aware that Cliffs eventuallly wants the chrome. They bought in FWR who has momentarely the biggest chrome deposit, they bought and will be buying in the side plays (excuse my terminology). Infrastructure (Cliffs) is getting a face. Eventually they will have a stake in all the ROF chrome players, except for NOT. NOT, the king of the ROF, will find themselves in a less than comfortable bargening position against Cliffs or any other major, stepping up the plate.

So NOT decides to take matters in their own hand and, propably, finds another financial backup. They commence a daring act, hostile take over bids, and mayby other future take overs, in order to outsmarten the future hegemony of Cliffs.

Now my take on what could happen in the near future with NOT-FWR.

FWR already rejected the 4 to 1 offering. In the latest NR, FWR board say they will look at every possible option. For me, one option is very plausible. Fwr spins of the chrome and sells it to Cliffs (if necessary in consultation with their ROF JV-partners). FWR continues with their other assets and a future SP yet to be determined based on the vaulue of the remaining assets and their bancaccount. The price of the chrome sellof is partially being used of paying a dividend to the shareholders and partially carried to FWR's bancaccount. FWR remains a well funded company, without the chrome. The question is, in this scenario, NOT being left outside the negosiations and Cliffs having the chrome. Will NOT stay on the side lines. I guess not, this will be the moment they will play their Joker.

In any event, NOT forced (or was forced) the hand. This will be a testcase for the chrome value. We will soon know what a major is willing to pay.

Interesting times ahead, and certainly no time not having shares in both companies.

GLTA, dor