The offer isn't to acquire treasury shares at any time - it's for already issued shares. Buying in the market at 54 cents is dicey. You're dealing with a complete unknown. If you buy you could lose and if you short you could lose too. For a few days the 4:1 ratio has held - slightly in NOT's favour - today it has swung the other way. NOT volume has fallen along with the share price - if brokers were accumulating volume would rise along with the price - but both have fallen. It looks as if the market is betting that there will be no NR for now. Continued uncertainty may drive the parties towards a discussion about a deal