'Who is willing to put their reputation on the line with a thoughtful analysis?'

....there is a huge difference in what you're asking.

no one has a cyrsytal ball to divine what the price will be and frankly that's of secondary importance. you've simply given us your idea as to what will happen to the price. that is not an analysis, it's a guess. and has nothing to do with reputation.

what you can't give us is an analysis/meaning of the pge's. that analysis comes from given data. there is no guessing or price involved with this aspect.