Let me play devils advocate for a moment. Perhaps you or others can fill in the facts or corrections that are missing from these observations:

1)CLF is a major. It has de facto declared, it is happy to get FWR without NOT.

2)It would be far cheaper for CLF to get FWR now ,at say $100-200 million in cash/stock . If FWR/NOT merger were to take place first, the cost for CLF rises dramatically. CLF ends up with minor portfolio interests replacing its FWR toeholds.

3) CLF has to date not dealt with NOT, at least no commitment of public record. So, CLF knows they too would be jerked around magnificantly by NOT.

In conclusion I see CLF taking a hard run at FWR now, then coming back for NOT later if interested. I see NOT desperate to end CFL's leverage.

That is how I see the game currently, with no idea whatever where valuation is, other than the CLF strategic interest.