HIGH-GRADE NI-CU-PT-PD-ZN-CR-AU-V-TI DISCOVERIES IN THE "RING OF FIRE"

NI 43-101 Update (September 2012): 11.1 Mt @ 1.68% Ni, 0.87% Cu, 0.89 gpt Pt and 3.09 gpt Pd and 0.18 gpt Au (Proven & Probable Reserves) / 8.9 Mt @ 1.10% Ni, 1.14% Cu, 1.16 gpt Pt and 3.49 gpt Pd and 0.30 gpt Au (Inferred Resource)

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Message: A Few Things Stand Out As Likely Aspects Of This Scenario

You read my intent in the last sentence quite accurately. NOT shares seem reasonably liquid for spec. stock. However, the resource deposit that NOT holds is not highly liquid at the values we would be expecting. The majors are not throwing gobs of money at new Ni deposits, and will not until there is greater certainty as to growth, inflation and interest rates. Most are taking great care to preserve their liquid capital.

All that aside, deposit valuations will be driven by world growth and there is little to none currently. If you are familiar with the history of Ambatovy, you know the risks the majors are trying to dodge in the presently uncertain environment. NOT has opened a Pandoras Box by putting a hard price on FWR that CLF can meet if they wish. Any other major that takes it away from NOT leaves NOT with the same situation as if CLF bought it. Any other anti-CLF sentiment is pure emotion. Any development of the FWR deposit would be great for NOT valuation, so the "consolidation" argument is largely bogus in that context.

The reason stagflation is a particular problem for the commodity metals is that demand growth becomes very uncertain, making major new long term capital commitments very difficult. What we all need is a more bullish environment where the threat of US interest rate hikes is not hanging over our heads. Sudbury would be back to work in a flash, and new major mine commitments would flow. That is what I mean by "illiquid", its worth a bundle but nobody wants to put out that bundle today. Yes, NOT stock itself is reasonably liquid.

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