Edgy, I think you have captured the escence of the strategies behind the NOT proposal. We would agree that NOT likely has some kind of backing. And every move changes the playing field .
It leaves one compelling question, for which I would like your (and anyone else's) 10,000 foot view. That is, given CLF's current position , its business and its FWR shareholding , how do you see CLF responding if at all ? That question and answer would detemine how I might hedge my bets over the next week or so. I own NOT, FWR and CLF along with others. My CLF is a long term position sort of an Asia play. Were it not for the small discount on NOT sp currently, I would sell my NOT and buy more FWR on the theory if the deal goes through, I will be no worse off, and if it does not, it would likely be because of a counter by someone. The wildcard is CLF obviously, on the one hand, many posters seem to see them as some sort of enemy, and yet it appears it was only CLF's interest in FWR that got the NOT BoD into action. (Emotions seem to be firmly entrenched, which is good.)
My simple math says that if CLF does not counter, with or without support of say a long term offtake partner, it is happy to walk away for good , which may be what NOT BoD is hoping for. On the other hand, if this is important to CLF , and our expectation of a background NOT supporter is also correct, we would head for a bidding war of sorts. That could play out many ways, history saying an unexpected third party might emerge down the road. I have said that I think CLF has too much at stake to walk away even if it just an emotional involvement with no long term strategic merit. The challenge to the SRP looks like a shot mostly aimed at CLF, who otherwise lose what might appear as a a strategic interest. A middle-of-the-road view is CLF and a long term Ni/Cr seeker could partner on a counter-bid for FWR . Another view is that CLF has no strategic interest whatever in FWR. NOT's actions seem to belie that latter view.
Look forward to any views you might share.
