There is far too much that we don't know to have developed hard and fast notions of what actually is. Does NOT have a major interested party that looks to NOT to wrap things up in a nice gift box for them, so they begin with FWR? Does NOT want to wrap it up on their own to avoid the ROF being picked apart a piece at a time on the cheap, leaving individual companies with less to bargain with? Is NOT moving prematurely, is the timing all wrong? Some would say yes, some would say no as the time to strike is when sp's are lower and before further discoveries reveal greater value and a proportionate sp. Will NOT sell for fast cash, will they take this down the road a year, two or three for greater return? Have they staffed to go the long haul, is it just a front, etc. etc.? How can we know this?
The investment community has been emotionally exhausted and so beaten down in expectations, given the economy and more troubled times to come, that there is doubt that the ROI will be what people had hoped for , and for those that bought in much higher, this could become their Aurelian. The latter statement is simply a possibility, not necessarily an eventuality. What ever the final sell out numbers, some will do well, others will not, depending at what price point one entered.
After all that is said on this and other boards, you have to ask yourself and write down, what do I really know for a fact? The rest is imagination or at best educated guesswork. Some posts are very forceful in coming across as truth when it is simply wording/theory/impressions/what is desired.... without backup....... and some of it just venting animosity. Lots of theory going on out there and if we took a bit of this and that we'd probably come up with something resembling the truth, but the whole truth will never be known regardless of how many books may be written up on this play.