Storm, when Noront announced the offer to FWR (as much as there was a premium based upon historical S/P trading ratios) I was in the camp that NOT must have at least one trump card up their sleeve. Heck, if I was a FWR shareholder at the date of the offer, I too would have thought the same. How could Noront think that FWR shareholders would be inclined to tender at the time of offer ($0.395) or today at ($0.405)? There must be something coming, right?

Having said that, I am not so sure anymore.

Is there the possibility that NOT overestimated the likeihood of success by believing that their offer as offered and as it stands, represents "fair" value? Maybe.

Without seeing an ace, one might be lead to believe that NOT might have a level of comfort in terms of institutional investor support. Seems to me however that FWR has differed from NOT in that our shares have much more institutional holders whereas FWR is said to have a greater proportion of retail share holders. But, one would think that NOT would be privy to this. Why have they been quite aggressive in asking share holders to tender?

Maybe it's just a timing issue. During this whole exercise, from my perspective NOT has done little to entice FWR shareholder's to contemplate tendering. Maybe there will be a game changing release. Is it tactical to wait until close proximity to the current closing date and offer up share price appreciating, tender worthy news? Maybe.

I do hope that you are correct in that NOT will release some news that will encourage FWR share holders to seriously consider the offer.

I am also hopeful that NOT did not overestimate their likelihood of success but am leaning more to this scenario. Maybe the board is spiteful - they overestimated, do not succeed and release great news after the offer fails.

I am generally wrong more often than right. Quite frankly, I would be okay being wrong yet again.

Cheers,

Milsy1