What have we learned?

HIGH-GRADE NI-CU-PT-PD-ZN-CR-AU-V-TI DISCOVERIES IN THE "RING OF FIRE"

NI 43-101 Update (September 2012): 11.1 Mt @ 1.68% Ni, 0.87% Cu, 0.89 gpt Pt and 3.09 gpt Pd and 0.18 gpt Au (Proven & Probable Reserves) / 8.9 Mt @ 1.10% Ni, 1.14% Cu, 1.16 gpt Pt and 3.49 gpt Pd and 0.30 gpt Au (Inferred Resource)

Reply New Message

Prev Message Back To Forum Threaded View Next Message

From_Sudbury

Rank: President [?]

Points: 10111 [?]

Votes: 332 Score: 3.4 [?]

Your Vote:

Please Log In to Vote

Did you know? You can earn activity points by filling your profile with information about yourself (what city you live in, your favorite team, blogs etc.)

What have we learned?

posted on Nov 14, 2009 03:17PM

During times like these, it's difficult to understand just what's going on. It's only after the fact that we could go back and piece it all together. This is what I suspect happened.

First phase is accumulation. That began on July 15. The institutions began to accumulate shares. They don't want retail in on the action just yet.....so, on that same day, Noront claims there is nothing material going on. This allows the institutions to accumulate over the next 8 trading days. To discourage retail further, Noront announces the give away of Windfall....... rather than the update they promised. Over 60 million shares trade at an average price of about $1.20/share. Volume is over 3 million shares for 6 of those days.

Next phase is profit taking. This is also the phase where it's time to encourage retail to get in. They begin with an update on July 27, followed by exciting news of a Vanadium/Titanium discovery. Nothing really. Several days later, on August 4th, the stock hits $3. Then, on August 5, they let retail in on the (real) news.....amazing news....large intersections of high grade NI/Cu/PGE's..... the two lences...What happens? The share price goes down....retail continues buying, institutions sell. The average buy in price for retail (and selling price for institutions) over this period is about $2.40/share. Over 3 million shares trade for 9 of the 13 days.

Now with profit in hand, the next phase is the flow through financing. This is where the institutions take the money they made off the backs of the retail and get in on the flow through financing so that they could have a tax deduction to write off the gains they made.

Then there is a four month holding period. During this period, the volume dries up....institutions stop buying. Volume exceeds 3 million shares on only 1 day of the next 70 days or so.....just think, about 20 news releases since then including updates, drilling results, appointments, the closing of the financing, negociations with natives, and a offer of a buy out....and only one day the volume exceeds 3 million shares. The price trends back down....in preparation for what I suspect to be the next accumulation phase.