Look, I know this comes across as naive, I know there are different institutional reactions to different situations just like, say, a football game adjusting to various teams. Yet patterns do emerge. and agoracom uses words like "manipulation" losely without understanding the players. People get duped to invest on good news which seems to bring SP down.

Yet, patterns emerge. What is consistent is that microcaps seem to have consistent institutional, short hedgies, manipulators, etc..., throwing large volumes around in patterns not necessarily beneficial to the retails. Each play a little different, yet patterns emerge and these patterns are worth analyzing, defining, and given a name the same way a football team gives certain plays a name. Retailers can protect themselves by making a defensive playbook and calling out audibles. Uh oh, the "manipulators," or "the possessors of volume," are doing the "shot gun," the "wild cat," or what have you. I think there will always be suckers, one level above suckers are those with a defensive play book, and the top profiteers are those who conrol volume.

CALL TO ACTION: One way to make money is to understand mining. We havev our techs and professors who contribute and educate. But no matter how much understanding of the geo process, we are still subject to those who control volume. Since there is a a pervasive distrust of hedgfunds controling a jnr company, let's make a defensive playbook. This way were not recreating the speculation wheel everytime action occurs. We can simply call the play, and even block a play, and protect and control our companies.

If this gets momentum, I wonder if those hired or influenced by hedgies would feel threatened? If you don't like this playbook idea, tell us all why not. Certainly a playbook where we all understand the volume and how it influences the sp would neuter bashers and pumpers, relegating the only real useful posts as having informative geo content.

Thumbs up and star me if you are game for this direction, so I get a sense of those in favor.

-SG

this is all in reaction to following posts:

What have we learned?

posted on Nov 14, 09 03:17PM

During times like these, it's difficult to understand just what's going on. It's only after the fact that we could go back and piece it all together. This is what I suspect happened.

First phase is accumulation. That began on July 15. The institutions began to accumulate shares. They don't want retail in on the action just yet.....so, on that same day, Noront claims there is nothing material going on. This allows the institutions to accumulate over the next 8 trading days. To discourage retail further, Noront announces the give away of Windfall....... rather than the update they promised. Over 60 million shares trade at an average price of about $1.20/share. Volume is over 3 million shares for 6 of those days.

Next phase is profit taking. This is also the phase where it's time to encourage retail to get in. They begin with an update on July 27, followed by exciting news of a Vanadium/Titanium discovery. Nothing really. Several days later, on August 4th, the stock hits $3. Then, on August 5, they let retail in on the (real) news.....amazing news....large intersections of high grade NI/Cu/PGE's..... the two lences...What happens? The share price goes down....retail continues buying, institutions sell. The average buy in price for retail (and selling price for institutions) over this period is about $2.40/share. Over 3 million shares trade for 9 of the 13 days.

Now with profit in hand, the next phase is the flow through financing. This is where the institutions take the money they made off the backs of the retail and get in on the flow through financing so that they could have a tax deduction to write off the gains they made.

Then there is a four month holding period. During this period, the volume dries up....institutions stop buying. Volume exceeds 3 million shares on only 1 day of the next 70 days or so.....just think, about 20 news releases since then including updates, drilling results, appointments, the closing of the financing, negociations with natives, and a offer of a buy out....and only one day the volume exceeds 3 million shares. The price trends back down....in preparation for what I suspect to be the next accumulation phase.

If I didn't learn this, then I've learned nothing at all. -sudsbury

Re: What have we learned?

in response to What have we learned? by From_Sudbury

posted on Nov 14, 09 10:13PM

for Sudbury or anyone who understands this or works with Institutions.

The more we understand Institutional investing the better our buying decisions will be. I'm still a little confused with a few points.

1) Edgy may have a point with disappointment dumping from Windfall -but the results the same -institutions buying.

2) If Institutions sold following news to take profit then they jump to flow through financing for Tax deduction. Is that a Canadian thing? And how do they take tax deductions to write off the gains they made, after they already sold?

3) If we are crrently now in a 4 month holding period, is it because they bought flow through financing? Despite all news relatively low volume - so they are stuck with the shares they own? is this right.

4) then as price has been falling, Institutions are preping for buying again. Shouldn't this start happing prior to next good news? If that were Dec 1st for FWR then shouldnt' accumulation (volume) start picking up now? For Not, if Dec 1st were good news for NOT, it would pick up soon.

5) how do they know good news is on it's way?

6) on FWR side you wrote: "FWR appears to be dealing with only Cliffs and not the institutions. It must burn them up that there will be all this money to be made and they can't get a piece of it. Well, they can, but they would have to buy off the open market the same as retail." Won't they make money if they bought flow through shares? Excuse my sleep-deprived brain, what key point did I get wrong here? Or are you just saying that their money is stuck in flow through shares and they can't do a quick buy and sell.

7) one last point, it seems like institutions make retailers lots of money for driving price up on accumulation, or is it the retailers who drove the price up?

-SG