3rd Party....just a theory, an opinioned one at that.
posted on
Nov 22, 2009 06:05PM
NI 43-101 Update (September 2012): 11.1 Mt @ 1.68% Ni, 0.87% Cu, 0.89 gpt Pt and 3.09 gpt Pd and 0.18 gpt Au (Proven & Probable Reserves) / 8.9 Mt @ 1.10% Ni, 1.14% Cu, 1.16 gpt Pt and 3.49 gpt Pd and 0.30 gpt Au (Inferred Resource)
Ahh, the good ol' retail shareholder, always on the outside looking for an inside to the inside.
Been reading everyones thoughts on 3rd party this that and the next thing, figured i'd add into.
In regards to the 3rd Party, perhaps its a "Funding Group" that's interested in going in big time on FWR. The info below shows the shares accumulated by a certain number of partners by way of Mineral Fields placements, is it possible that perhaps we will see this same group of, at last count, 7, come into the scene collectively with some back door big money buy in for a much larger percentage of FWR.
MF's have been party to numerous flow throughs over the last few years. Whether or not they (partners) still hold or not is of course a different story, but for the heck of it lets say they do.
July 30/07 5,714,284 shares , same number of warrants expiry date of July 26/08
Oct 23/07 1,923,976 shares , 850,000 warrants expiry Oct 23/08
Oct 31/07 1,071,426 shares , 500,000 warrants expiry Oct 29/08
Dec 31/08 11,500,000 shares, 5,750,000 warrants expiry Dec 31/10
Apr 30/09 1,666,666 shares no warrants
Total 21,867,352
Roughly 10% of todays outstanding shares of FWR, collectively shared by and large between a buying group of up to 7 Partners. Now then, what if these partners are all partners, together. A Consortium if you like. Mac would know each and every private placement placee whether individual or group and as such has an advantage over NOT in
Given the goings on in the Ring, it would not be hard to imagine the same group of partners bringing in a few more partners with Big $ behind them in order to help finance a means to an end by topping up the share pool collective.
That's a fair number of shares, plus warrants, also, if the partners have been active participants in the large volumn run up from 30 to 50 they really stood a good chance to collect a whack to add to the total. Would it be a reasonable assumption that these guys could potentially hold 25% or more of outstanding shares, may be the 3rd Party/ "buying group"?? Ready to plop a whack of cash down for a minimum of 51% control
Possibility? imo yes.
Is FWR looking at some serious dilution for a buyin or are the groups going to form up and declare percentage?
Or, Just For the hell of it, how about this one.
Cliffs proposes a deal whereby Mac rolls the 100% and JV Chromite only into that Private Company known only as Canada Chrome in exchange for an all cash deal/cash on the dash premium of 100% above FWR's current sp, FWR still retains all it's other holdings, Quest included, FWR remains operator on the 100% claims where all future exploration is funded entirely by Cliffs, FWR gets anything else that comes to surface here on in from said claims including the platinum/palladium/nickel et all, FWR gets a 2% NSR to boot.
Canada Chrome with the KWG 25% JV Big Daddy chromite and the FWR100% Blackthor chromite in hand would look quite attractive come time of the IPO, no? Is Neil Novak working on a deal for his 25% of Big Daddy as well??
Would FWR holders go for it, $1.10 as share? What would be a resonable cut for shareholders? Would Cliffs shareholders approve the $236,000,000 purchase? Would NOT counter with a 1 for 3 or better, will NOT let it get away from them, are they willing to fight, if so, to what degree? If there is no 3rd party and NOT does not get 661/3, will NOT take up all shares tendered or walk away completely or will Wes add an extension to the offer beyond Dec 1, if so will this continue on into the New Year???
Are NOT and Cliffs burning the FWR candle from both ends, working together to mitigate cost of acquisition, just a theory.
Mac needs an out to keep the chromite out of NOTs' wanting hands, question is just what deal is he willing to settle on that the FWR shareholders would approve.
Is Xstrata a sleeper?
what if, what if, what if, tick tock, tick tock,
Ahh, if only we had the inside on inside.
Cheers all.
Rob
It must be fairly punky up there these days with this type of weather. Real hard to make substantial ice with temps like this. Crews will be working in short sleeves if this keeps up.
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