I have no arguments with this scenario. It is a bang on analysis.
It is the reason that Noront is a value buy at $2.40 cents. Either that or FreeWest is totally inflated at .90 cents. Either way, a sale of FWR shares to buy NOT shares "at the moment" is a good personal investment strategy in my opinion. I only hope that the shares sold at .90 cents go into Noront friendly hands, rather than an accumulating Cliff's hands. But that is for the big boys to decide.
At some point should Cliffs win, those who hold their FWR shares and who want to remain in the action of ROF plays and not settle for 10 - 15% per year returns will come back to ROF companies. But at that time the buy-in price will likely be a lot higher given the demand. This is why I bought so much more Noront recently (those outside my longterm core holdings). If Cliff is successful there will be an exodus to either one or more of the other ROF plays, regardless of whether Cliffs ever mines the chrome. If Noront is successful we have the synergy of both companies.
FWR is going away whether it goes to Cliffs or Noront. The question is where does an FWR shareholder want to end up, and at what price will that seat to that final destination be made available? I have some tickets accumulated to be scalped closer to the concert date.
M1.