Re: minimum price per share
in response to
by
posted on
Dec 15, 2009 01:18AM
NI 43-101 Update (September 2012): 11.1 Mt @ 1.68% Ni, 0.87% Cu, 0.89 gpt Pt and 3.09 gpt Pd and 0.18 gpt Au (Proven & Probable Reserves) / 8.9 Mt @ 1.10% Ni, 1.14% Cu, 1.16 gpt Pt and 3.49 gpt Pd and 0.30 gpt Au (Inferred Resource)
I am so confused and feeling pretty sluggish in the noggin right now. I'm still trying to figure out LTGoldBulls2's method. He arrives at $1.29ish for Noront's nickel. Edgy at $18 , not counting chromite, pge, and iums. Were you talking about cliffs offer for Freewests chromite at .05 value of ore? And how is this related to Not.v's nickel buyout. Did I miss the tarket here? Spell it out again...pretend I'm drunk, my frontal lobes have shut down, and executive decision making is gone. Give me more examples.
I cut it by three to make an assured profit of three times the buyout of a company. So 1 billion buyout and you want to make sure you get 3 or 4 billion profit. It's a BS number I grabbed out of air because it had resonance from another poster. So of course you can forego it, but it helps keep the numbers grounded.
When I cut 4.5 bil in half, I was taking all the costs to bring to a proved ore reserve and a buyout by someone who would want to produce a mine. Therefor more immediate profits for us. Mining Explained published by Norhtern Miner just advised to cut ore value in half to take care of producing, taxes, etc..., p. 85, 86, "The gross Value Fallacy: mining companies and investors often make mistakes when calculating the value of mineral dopsoits. one of the most common errors is a simple calculation wherein reported percentages of metals are multiplied by current market prices for theose metals yielding what is known as the gross value fo the reserves. This figure is virtually meaningless...Studies have shown that a typical base metal mine will genrally get about 45% to 65% of the gross metal value as a net return from the smelter. Some complex ores, which will tend to have higher smelting costs, can return as little as 35% of the gross metal value."
Let's go through Voiseys Bay numbers:
130,000,000 tons
times 2000 to find the pounds.
= 130, 000, 000, 000 pounds.
x.02% average massive nickel
= 2,600,000,000
multiply by approximately nickel $3.00/lb at the time.
= $7,800,000,000
Inco paid $4.3 billion = 55%
This is between 45% to 65%, 18 months from discovery to buyout. This is as the book Mining Explained described, and yes without my random division by three number.
As you can see with Cliffs, feasibility studies for provable ore seems out the window. If a major is certain the ore is somewhere there, then they can avoid a premium by snapping jr. up early. The railroad will be a huge game changer and it's timetable will push forward offers by majors before it is built. The railroad is further along then Noront seems willing to admit, as it' is being developed in partnership by their competition. Plus Noront just got a lot of exposure from Freewest offer. Xstrata will act fast before competition steps in. For these reasons, I don't think Noront will be around in 2011. bold statements SG. Things begin to accelerate. Old time tables are old, new ones are around the corner.
Can someone run through both my method and LTGoldBulls2's method to see what Freewest should be paid compared to what Cliffs wants for it.
While were clarifying. if I say I made 3 bagger, does that mean if I bought a security for $2, did I sell it at $6 or $8?
-sg