Something Sexy vs. the Delay factor
posted on
Mar 10, 2010 01:37PM
NI 43-101 Update (September 2012): 11.1 Mt @ 1.68% Ni, 0.87% Cu, 0.89 gpt Pt and 3.09 gpt Pd and 0.18 gpt Au (Proven & Probable Reserves) / 8.9 Mt @ 1.10% Ni, 1.14% Cu, 1.16 gpt Pt and 3.49 gpt Pd and 0.30 gpt Au (Inferred Resource)
Folks are used to Noront insitu value. Since they don't pay dividends, more information of what they already know does little to nothing.
Buy on rumor sell on news are happy. AT12 had a rumor, news happened, and they sold. The news was geologically interesting, but not a massive hit. Since the rumor (started by Wes himself) inferred something fantastic, a NR of geological inference to something great isn't a delivery. In fact, for many a disappointment.
Then a double NR hit with another Eagles Nest estimate upgrade stirs some excitement, sell on news. The profit takers took.
If we want sustaining investors to get us back to $4 or $5 base, something sexy has to happen. Hole 5, Hole 49, and I forgot the other one were sexy. We need something to come and explode us upwards.
I don't think there is any conspirative manipulation happening here. It's just people profit taking, which in Penny stocks is the surest way of keeping profits.
Now looking at patterns, Noront has The Delay Factor. Noront releases good news indicating potential, and the SP always seems to go down from short term profit takers. Seems we are infested with them, like bedbugs ruining an interesting night with your lady. Who can blame them, everyone knows Noront will launch sometime. Then the smart money swoops in for low SP, and then the SP launches. I'm betting that's going to happen again. Noront's going to hit 2.00 in the next few weeks, and we'll be scratching our heads again questioning: is there a rumor, a leak? No, just great potential.
Side thoughts: Crazy Ideas
If I were Cliffs, I would want all of ROF. Possessing all of ROF lands could take them to the next level. Imagine Cliffs having a railroad to ROF, and it's all theirs. Imagine their potential. Therefor, this may come down to Noront vs. Cliffs. From here on out, distrust anything Cliffs says as they need to devalue everyone around them.
For example, Noront is feasable or at least on the threshhold of becoming feasible. But to say Noront is not feasible with a sense of absolute resolution has energy of conflict of interest behind it. Had they wavered, saying they're not sure, perhaps with a railroad, I'd think that was honest candor. But a strong negative -slanderous swines!
I think that for Cliffs it's not about what Noront has found so far, it's about Noront's land. It's about the potential of all of the land Noront holds for Cliffs long-term strategy of supplying the US government. I think the US government has already considered Cliffs as part of their strategy to combat the looming US recesssion recovery and long-term road to independence. ROF plus the railroad is is essential in that mix to making northern lands feasible. If my theory is right, all this Canadian support for ROF should stir up the interest of other majors. If none get involved, then there may be Govt interference creating dissinsentive. An interesting investigation would be to investigate Cliff's interaction with US govt officials.
Cliffs plans for long term, where Noront's plans for a year or two in advance. It may be that Cliffs will offer to buy out sections of Noront's ROF land, letting Noront keep Eagle's nest. But in the end, I think it's going to come down to Noront struggling to maintain control of it's investors form a hostile Cliffs takeover. Noront must get that third party in, if they plan to have a future or huge profits and keep Cliffs respectful.
-sg