HIGH-GRADE NI-CU-PT-PD-ZN-CR-AU-V-TI DISCOVERIES IN THE "RING OF FIRE"

NI 43-101 Update (September 2012): 11.1 Mt @ 1.68% Ni, 0.87% Cu, 0.89 gpt Pt and 3.09 gpt Pd and 0.18 gpt Au (Proven & Probable Reserves) / 8.9 Mt @ 1.10% Ni, 1.14% Cu, 1.16 gpt Pt and 3.49 gpt Pd and 0.30 gpt Au (Inferred Resource)

Free
Message: Glorieux and Joe

Your post raises a good point- while most posters here agree intuitively that the deposits should be worth many times the market cap, there is scant math to connect the dots. I requested by post several months ago for anyone with a strong view to connect the dots of total capital cost to a producing mine. That would start with today's market cap., multiply by what you think fair value is (X3, X5 ,X10?) then add all the other costs over time to a major developer. Then, factor in a risk loaded rate of return. That grand total is in the ballpark of what the major is committing to, all in , to first revenue. Zero responses.

My take is that while remoteness is a big factor, this can eventually be overcome if enough resource is found. However, it leaves the basic "today's value" conundrum of connecting those dots. It is in fact our own management folks who should be putting up some basic comprehensive modelling if they really want retail to embrace a perceived value gap. I think a lot of the posters who have left active discussion have simply given up looking for that much needed input. If NOT management has not done that math in a reasonably proficient way or has done it but cannot for regulatory reasons share it, how can we know what size of a deposit will garner the sp multiple from a major we are expecting ? As long as NOT otherwise remains totally speculative, and it does without at least some credible math, discounting will be heavy and justified, with many potential investors huddled on the sidelines. Meanwhile, all we can realistically do is drill,drill, drill.

Share
New Message
Please login to post a reply