Re: My Fear about NOT
in response to
by
posted on
Jun 11, 2010 06:01PM
NI 43-101 Update (September 2012): 11.1 Mt @ 1.68% Ni, 0.87% Cu, 0.89 gpt Pt and 3.09 gpt Pd and 0.18 gpt Au (Proven & Probable Reserves) / 8.9 Mt @ 1.10% Ni, 1.14% Cu, 1.16 gpt Pt and 3.49 gpt Pd and 0.30 gpt Au (Inferred Resource)
Whatever we are seeing currently is not manipulation. There may be a number of institutional buyers and sellers with buy and sell limits/orders reflecting concensus of current valuation. Overall, the market really likes the resource/potential but has no visibility for how to realize on it.
The current limiters to price (upward) are a significant base market cap ($200 mil + fd) combined with tremendous uncertainty/fear at both the company and economy levels. Market sentiment is weighted downward for many reasons. Simple realities specific to a 5-7 year development timeframe for NOT range from provincial/federal mining and tax policy, FN, environmental/infrastructure costs, etc. Imagine (only) the implications of a Liberal-NDP marriage. Could make the ALP look like a bunch of Steve Forbes' on tax policy. Constant international risk reminders come from the Gulf, Australia, China, CNBC, Europe, you name it. Positive indicators are drowning in oil , Euros and US economic minutiae. Personally, I am much more concerned about runaway provincial spending/taxation right here at home. NOT is doing a great job digging while having to hold the shovel in its teeth.
But make no mistake that the big boys demand the biggest and best toys and they have their eyes on NOT. CLF wants all the RoF badly . It would be like the Flyers having Pittsburgh as a farm team. CLF is being very shewd (perhaps too shrewd) in its approach to SPQ and KWG. CLF is not allergic to nickel. The best NOT could hope for is that CLF's skinny approach attracts competition. NOT could right now be using its Cr as an incentive to attract that competition. Keep a close eye on the CLF/SPQ/KWG developments for indicators on whether there will be another major involved for the foreseeable future. They will attempt to squeeze CLF to a better offer any way they can. If CLF gets all of both SPQ and KWG (presumably at a higher price than 13 cents!) NOT's job to attract a major would become ever more difficult. If another major appears anywhere, NOT on the other hand can appreciate significantly . Many may be loaded with SPQ and KWG and CLF waiting to see that play out before loading up on NOT. I kind of prefer that strategy currently. (If CLF itself were ever to get taken out prior to that , NOT could be left with a lot of nickel but a very lonely mid term situation.) Meanwhile, the majors themselves are faced with a lot of similar and familiar fears, making new commitments to greenfield expansions very unattractive strategically. Hopefully the resource can grow much faster than the share issuance to offset the wait. We should see a big bounce in the event of stellar drilling results in any event.