I see very little analysis of the NOT geology on the forum these days and much chit-chat, which I am not disparaging because it is keeping the thing alive, I guess.

But I am wondering day-by-day where we are headed. Anyone interested in commenting on the macro issues? I am a firm believer in NOT's potential, but this has to be tempered by questions of timing and the overall economy. From being away too heavy in NOT, I have scaled back to a still quite heavy position. Now I am wondering if I am still too exposed.

I am also a firm believer in the fact that we are headed for another stock market crash a la Fall 2008 in the near future, likely not later than November of this year. Ideally, if one were dead certain, one would then hold cash and PMs (not paper but the real thing). Naturally, if I am wrong, there is a downside to taking a further loss on NOT at this time if there is an imminent bump up as we expect.

An alternative to cash and PMs which might pay off better would be to add to those PM stocks which are expected to be hot in the near future. Problem with this alternative is that in the event of a major market setback, the PM stocks will probably dive too, albeit they should recover long before the base metal shares.

I would like to see NOT marketed as a PM play and that may yet come to pass, I think. This would have to be reality-based, and I don't have the tools to analyse how close NOT is to be able to pull this off.

Well, I guess to a lesser or greater extent we all have these thoughts, or similar. But I hope some of our lively and knowledgeable posters might find this train of thought worth commenting on.

Best wishes to all NOT longs,

Orange Flash