Facts, Rumors, SP and JJ
posted on
Aug 08, 2010 10:36PM
NI 43-101 Update (September 2012): 11.1 Mt @ 1.68% Ni, 0.87% Cu, 0.89 gpt Pt and 3.09 gpt Pd and 0.18 gpt Au (Proven & Probable Reserves) / 8.9 Mt @ 1.10% Ni, 1.14% Cu, 1.16 gpt Pt and 3.49 gpt Pd and 0.30 gpt Au (Inferred Resource)
Here are my 2 cents worth from a very busy weekend trying to keep my wife happy on our 9th wedding anniversary (was in TO with no kids, saw Rock of Ages-loved it) and trying to talk to all my sources and figure out what is going on with Noront.
First of all, I am back in heavy so take everything I say with that in mind. Couple that with the fact that I always post in a positive light, especially Noront. In other words, reader beware.
Let's start with some facts: JJ was let go last Wednesday. A NR should announce this fairly shortly because she is part of management and so this is a reportable event. She has sent me an email asking me to thank everyone for their good wishes and she appreciates them. I for one would like to thank her for all her work and dedication. I always appreciated my conversations with her and will being able to call her up to chat on Noront.
Rumors: They have hit big under Eagle's nest, more than they thought would be there
They have hit something in their regional drilling program
Cliff's is about to make a take out offer
Now any of these could be true, they could all be true or they could all be false, only time will tell. All of these would be beneficial to our SP and if Cliff's is about to step in and make an offer, you can bet your a$$ that Noront will release visuals/any assays they have. In essence, without actually having a bidding war, we could end up in a situation where events escalate the price quite dramatically. I for one would not be selling to arbitrage on the first offer.
Let's talk more about Cliff's. I believe it is only a matter of time before Cliff's comes after us. Their current Chromite plans offer a very long Capex recovery. Even in a low interest environment, that is not a positive situation for a mining company. Noront's Eagle's nest will permit a much faster payback on Capex and increase their profitability on their Chromite. I believe we are near the best time for Cliff's to step up to the plate. Noront's share price has been very low for the last 30 days, averaging about $1.15 and fairly low for the last 90 days averaging $1.30. Add this to the admitted drilling difficulties deep at Eagle's nest and this is about the best scenario for Cliff's.
Having said that, the rumors are just rumors at this point even though some on Bay Street believe it to be true. The other rumors are also only rumors and we know from past experience what rumors can do to our share price and I expect that our share price will be very volatile until Noront clears up what they can. The problem in this situation is Noront must be aware of the Cliff's rumors and would love to have some ammo to respond to them but now, these rumors may force their hand early. It will be an interesting next few weeks/months that is for sure.
The best gauge as to what is really going on will be volume. If we trade 2M+ shares tomorrow and finish over $1.50, my bet is we have some truth to at least one of these rumors and we will be in for some big time action on our share price the rest of the week. So keep your eyes on volume and price tomorrow and make your game plan ahead of time in terms of buying or selling as I believe emotions may be a running high.
Good luck to all,
Glorieux