I want to be really clear about how fast the NPV of Eagle is moving up! It's astonishing considering how little has been conveyed to us by management in the interim.
Please refer to the graph on page 9 of the 43-101. Figure 1.5.
The blue line is product price. It says that if product price increases to 130% from the base case in the 43-101 then the after tax NPV of Eagle rises from the $505M to $1002M.
Now let's look at what has happened with eagle since the 43-101 base case - (I've simplified the analysis a bit by only including nickle).
1. Nickel % has increased from the 1.64%, lets say to 1.85% -> increase in price of 1.85%/1.64% - 1= 12.8% increase in price
2. $/lbd of nickle has increased from $9.08 to, let's say $10.7 -> increase in price of 10.7/9.08 = 17.8% increase in price
3. tonnage has increased by let's say 10% -> adjusting for variable costs (about 50% of revenue since the addition is in the deep part of the mine) means that this contributes about 7% to price. {Excluding the new find -> Net Revenue % = 100% - 35% (approx variable costs) = 65%. The new find adds about 5% pure profit: 10% increase less variable costs (50% of new find) = 5%. 70% versus the 65% we had before is an increase in value of 7 - 8%}
Overall we have an increase of 1.128*1.178*1.07 -1 = 43% increase in product price. Extrapolating that graph on page 9 gives me a NPV of approx 1.2B after tax. Please note that I haven't been following NOT as closely as I should be so if any of the "NEW" amounts in 1. 2. or 3. seem off, please let me know.