REFILE-Nickel outlook least promising due to supply -BNP Paribas

(Removes extra word in headline)

SYDNEY May 10 (Reuters) - BNP Paribas on Tuesday singled out nickel as the lone price under performer this year among base metals commodities, despite seeing a supply deficit for the second year running.

The bank's senior metals markets strategist Stephen Briggs forecast each of the major London Metal Exchange-traded metals to finish the fourth quarter of 2011 higher than when they started, except for nickel, which Briggs said is headed for an 11 percent drop.

Mining companies, including Vale , Xstrata , AngloAmerican and Sherritt International have been racing to construct new mines mostly to feed demand for nickel to make stainless steel, hoping prices will strengthen in step with projected consumption growth.

This year's expected supply deficit of around 30,000 tonnes -- against consumption of 1.59 million tonnes, will reverse into a 25,000-tonnes surplus in 2012 building to an 80,000-tonne surplus in 2013, according to Briggs

"It looks to me like nickel will start moving into a surplus next year," Briggs told reporters, citing a dozen or so new nickel mines in various stages of completion worldwide.

Briggs forecast nickel will average only $24,000 a tonne in the fourth quarter of 2011, down from its first-quarter average of $26,895.

This compares with a forecast 6 percent rise in aluminium's average price over the period, a 19 percent gain in copper and a 14 percent rise in tin, Briggs said.

Nickel production growth was set to double by close to 20 percent over the next two years, compared to 2010, which will wear on the price, he said.

Finnish miner Talvivarra will make the biggest contribution of 20,000 tonnes to new production this year, followed by Mirabela's Santa Rita mine in Brazil, yielding 10,000 tonnes, he said.

After that, the long-touted Goro and Onca Puma mines owned by Vale should start to kick in production, along with Xstrata's Koniambo mine and a handful of other projects afar afield as Madagascar, Turkey, Papua New Guinea and the United States, according to Briggs.

By 2014, production from the new projects could total 360,000 tonnes, equivalent to almost a fifth of current world consumption but still under the 480,000 tonnes in total targeted by the mining companies, he said

Nickel prices peaked at just under $29,500 a tonne in late February and have largely been on a downslope since. LME three-month nickel last closed at $24,375 a tonne. (Reporting by James Regan; Editing by Ed Davies)