When I spoke to Bill Boer at PDAC he stated the following:
" If the smelter is in Ontario, it will be in Sudbury".
I suspect they would like to locate the Smelter in Manitoba or Quebec because they know they can get better electricity rates.
However they also know that the province of Ontario will not help fund the infrastructure unless the smelter is in Ontario.
It looks like the province is dragging it's feet on infrastructure until Cliffs makes a committment to locate the smelter in Sudbury.
Compared to the other possible centers such as Thunder Bay and Timmins, Sudbury has vastly more advantages including a global mining supply sector, a skilled mining labour force, mining research center, mining engineering school, easier to attract skilled labour and management due to relative closeness to major centers etc.
Cliffs already owns the Moose Mountain property which is located near the CN Rail and has a good supply of electricity.
SN