"One might think that they are ahead or early but typically "everyone" (the market) seems to show up around the same time to the party. The conditions would have turned favourable... probably on account of more clarity. Their funds would have been sidelined for a reason. If that reason, or the risk involved, no longer exists then their funds will be put back in the game."

Well...just for fun: It may well be that it's really not risk they wait to pass, but for better prices to come. Some might say this is the same thing. But, as to your first point, a major coming in to take out a company really cheaply doesn't change the market, it simply causes a few fish to move in to nibble (speculate) on the stock that is going to go up because first offers usually do. To take out a company does not suddenly change overall market sentiment. Companies are taken out often in the worst of times as there are always smart entities that sit in waiting for just such an opportunity. In this case the major isn't concerned about the present sp other than it allows them to get a company for as few bucks as they could hope for. What they are concerned with is what that land will produce in minerals to increase their bottom line. To accept your point about the market showing up to the same party....well I'd still argue that as the winner of the race only has to cross the line first in the photo finish, that makes that person.....ahead of everyone else. In the case of the market, "everyone" doesn't show up at the same time either, there is usually a lag before the fear subsides. It is more of a swell with sentiment change. But the aforesaid is simply my own personal observations. There are many perspectives as we have just illustrated.

I suspect we will see some really aweful takeouts in the coming months, leaving many unhappy investors in the wake. Given the present sp's, how could it be otherwise. There seems to be such a quiet in M&A. I would wonder what is going on under the water. I think I see fins.