Fundamental info revision:
posted on
Nov 29, 2012 01:13AM
NI 43-101 Update (September 2012): 11.1 Mt @ 1.68% Ni, 0.87% Cu, 0.89 gpt Pt and 3.09 gpt Pd and 0.18 gpt Au (Proven & Probable Reserves) / 8.9 Mt @ 1.10% Ni, 1.14% Cu, 1.16 gpt Pt and 3.49 gpt Pd and 0.30 gpt Au (Inferred Resource)
I am just going over some of the info as there seems to be some questions about it-and it has been a long time since I seriously looked Noront and since I am getting heavily invested again, I thought it was a good idea. From the Feasibility study, we have:
A discounted cash flow (DCF) based on the assumed metal prices indicates:
and then this:
The project description is as follows:
PROVEN AND PROBABLE MINERAL RESERVE Classification Tonnes Nickel Copper Platinum Palladium (1,000) (%) (%) (g/t) (g/t) Proven 5,264.0 2.02 1.04 1.01 3.45 Probable 5,867.0 1.38 0.72 0.78 2.76 Proven and probable 11,131.0 1.68 0.87 0.89 3.09
The DCF model includes operating costs to operate the mine and process plant, selling of bulk concentrate, environmental monitoring, overall management of the proposed operation, closure costs and taxes.
At current metal prices (Aug. 31, 2012), the DCF indicates an aftertax NPV8 of $233-million and an IRR of 18 per cent.
One huge discrepancy here is the NPV8 using assumed prices ($543M) vs current metal prices ($233M) and this IMO also plays a role in our low share price. However, current forecasts have nickel prices recovering in 2015-2016, probably around the $10 area. Please note that this NPV8 is for the reserves only as no value has been given to another 9M tons of high grade Ni/Cu/Pt/Pd in the resource category. I would surmise that this 9M tons would add significant value to our NPV8 since all our infrastructure cost will have been paid already. However, this value is reduced as we would not be mining this ore until year 12.
From the technical report by Micon dated April 18th 2011 page 89, we can see that the reserves are from surface down to a depth of 700m. The resource category, is from 700m to 1350. From page 7, they discuss how massive sulfides could be present in the middle and lower portion of Eagle's nest and if they are present, they would increase both tonnage and grade. They also discuss how Eagle's nest is open to the South and down dip. However, they admit expansion to the South is limited but that the downdip area has the potential to significantly add to our resource.
All this to say that our current NPV8 worst case scenario with the current metal prices still gives us over $1 per share with no value for the 9M tons resource, the potential to add significantly to this resource at depth, no value for the chromite or the rest of our land. Can NOT go lower...sure it can. Will it someday be significantly much higher, Guaranteed!!
Glorieux