Re: does history repeat itself ?
in response to
by
posted on
Nov 16, 2013 12:53PM
NI 43-101 Update (September 2012): 11.1 Mt @ 1.68% Ni, 0.87% Cu, 0.89 gpt Pt and 3.09 gpt Pd and 0.18 gpt Au (Proven & Probable Reserves) / 8.9 Mt @ 1.10% Ni, 1.14% Cu, 1.16 gpt Pt and 3.49 gpt Pd and 0.30 gpt Au (Inferred Resource)
What exactly have I missed goodheart? Seriously.
Off the top of my head, very quickly and very recently, Khareema, Rhammer, myself, Fossil, and many others have never disputed that rail will come at some point as it only makes sense from a cost standpoint. Who has said otherwise? Cost cutting is evident in every single business in the world, why would this be any different?
The only thing i'm missing, is what exactly you think it is that I'm missing? I've said it 100 times, rail will be COME, rail is NEEDED just not right away. If you wish, I can post it daily so you know that i'm not missing something. I appreciate your concern. I get that the entire ROF ore likely won't come out via road. I've never said such a thing. I've simply said they will start by road.
Personally, I think it is you guys who are missing something very important. You are failing to see timelines and more importantly, initial capital needed for rail. Do you honestly believe the first ore taken out of the ROF will be by rail in a few years? Do you realize that test samples of ore have already come out of the ring by truck? The sheer time to get a railroad built is the biggest problem. Investors want progress, FN support E/W, and a cheap and dirty road can and will accomplish all of the above.......to start.
But by far the biggest thing you are missing, is that there are two projects here goodheart. There is noronts nickel/platinum/palladium etc, and then there is the chrome projects. Noronts stance has always been nickel first, chrome later. This is because they can get the nickel out without rail and it reaps a much higher margin per truck load than chrome. Cash will be flowing for noront when they finally mine the chrome. By then, a good all season road, or.......wait for it, railroad will be in place. Do you follow? Am I making sense? Has it occured to you that the reason KWG wants rail is because the chrome will be hard to make economical given the current prices/demand/supply of the product? If you haven't, you should, you have your hard earned money invested in it. I know it's crossed my mind several times about Noronts chrome. Given the supply/demand of chrome, the value on a per share basis is a hard one to peg.
Luckily the chrome has more value than just it's mathematical spot etc. It can provide North America with its first mass supply of chrome that is relatively free of the political nightmares like some exporters. And most importantly, it provides market control.
There are some VERY conservative numbers on the ROF's worth being thrown around, like $60 billion. Of course rail will be needed to harvest all of this. But when? Noront is by far the furthest advanced and they don't even need it for eagles nest. Heck, they may not even need an all season road to start!
As an investor in KWG, I would be more concerned with what will happen if E/W is announced. In the short term what will it do to KWG? Rail will come, but it may not benefit KWG to the extent investors think, if at all. That is KWG's real catalyst, getting paid for the rail corridor, which is why you guys are relentlessly pushing it. This is not a slam dunk though. Give me one good reason why rail is needed TO START. If rail doesn't come first, what will it mean for your investment? I don't know to be honest, I see value in every ROF company, including KWG. But I see much more in Noront, and the time horizon is far sooner than that of any other company.
In the future, worry less about me missing something, and more on yourself. I am confident I've looked at my investment in Noront from every angle, the good, the bad and the ugly. In the end we're all going to make money, and whether road or rail comes first is irrelevant in the very long term. If you're not concerned about having your money tied up, than i'm sure you'll be fine. I am concerned, I want returns within 12-24 mths. With road to start, I see further dilution for KWG and no real reason other than buyout for big returns like noront in my timeframe. Good luck.
djje