Re: ROF mentioned on BNN today,,,not a positive mentioningrid
in response to
by
posted on
Jun 25, 2014 12:55AM
NI 43-101 Update (September 2012): 11.1 Mt @ 1.68% Ni, 0.87% Cu, 0.89 gpt Pt and 3.09 gpt Pd and 0.18 gpt Au (Proven & Probable Reserves) / 8.9 Mt @ 1.10% Ni, 1.14% Cu, 1.16 gpt Pt and 3.49 gpt Pd and 0.30 gpt Au (Inferred Resource)
I posted this on the KWG board, referring mainly to KWG's interests, but of course NOT also has chromite; I have added some more about nickel and Not to the original KWG post.
Several points;-
He seems to regard the Ontario Govt's motive for funding ROF infrastructure as being primarily "social development" by which I assume he has caught something of the importance placed on the improved transport facilities to & from FN communities, the ensuing employment opportunities, and so on.
He talks of China as being the only possible market for chromite ore, which he says will be the main product exported from Ontario, and disregards the operation of smelter(s) to produce ferrochrome. Ferrochrome is imported to the USA from China, as he says, but he ignores the strategic significance of not relying on China for this, and the reduced costs of having a much closer supply here in Ontario.
South Korea and Japan would also be happy to get supplies from a stable country beyond China's shadow.
I suppose he is qualified as an 'expert' in the field of major mining companies trading on the NYSE. Those guys like to buy producers, when all the headaches and uncertainty of exploration and infrastructure have been dealt with. I agree the market for ferrochrome is smaller than that for iron or steel, but the price per ton for chromite is generally better than that for iron pellets, so why should railways etc be economic for iron deposits in Labrador but not for the ROF deposits? Schefferville is connected to Sept Iles by a 570 kilometre rail line, and Labrador Iron Mines, a new mine, has shipped 4million tons of ore over the past 3 years, quite an easy target to produce from any one of the several deposits in the ROF.The total production of the several Labrador iron mines was around 25million tons in 2013, at prices of $100 per ton and below. A current price for chromite is harder to pin down, but will be more, my guess is $150 to $250/ton is likely.
He says South African ferrochrome producers are the most efficient in the world, and therefore Ontario will not be able to compete, though his main argument rests on comparative currency exchange rates, rather than any actual efficiency in the industry. Evidently he hasn't yet heard anything of KWG's new energy efficient process.
He doubts a "second tier" source such as the ROF deposits, could find a market due to long term relationships between suppliers and users, with no idea of just how much chromite we have, and the quality of the ore, both of which place the ROF as potentially a market shaker. If Turkey and Finland can compete with their chromite deposits, why shouldn't we, with far more and much richer ore? The same applies to the very rich NOT polymetallic deposits; Eagle's Nest ore is worth a fair bit more per ton than other Canadian nickel deposits now being mined, so why shouldn't it be economic to mine?
He says the deposits in the ROF can never be economically exploited or justify expenditures of as much as $2billion for infrastructure and mine development, because chromite isn't worth digging out of the ground, and there is plenty of nickel elsewhere in Canada which doesn't give huge returns to mining companies. (OK, not his exact words, but what I gathered from listening). That is ludicrously mistaken when you actually look at the Eagle's Nest with the rich concentration of metals found along with the nickel.
Then there must be something seriously wrong with my arithmetic, in regard to the chromite, as figures of around 3 to 4 million tons per year of chromite for 100 years seem like a heck of a lot of potential return for $2 billion, even sold as ore, that would be what, 3+ million tons X $200/ton per year (at a low price) = $600+million/year. The Micon Big Daddy Report showed 2010 prices for metallurgical grade chromite ranging from $180/tonne to $395/tonne, depending on grade.
If processed into ferrochrome, somewhat more. The price varies a lot, and more supply, as from the ROF, would bring prices down. Against that, South Africa, presently the main ferrochrome exporter, is having power supply problems which are likely to continue, while demand worldwide is increasing steadily.
Current ferrochrome producers spend around 1/3 of their total costs for electricity. Outokumpu, the Finnish chromite mining company estimates that electricity costs (including the ferrochrome smelter and the Kemi Mine) are 31% of their ferrochrome production costs, with an additional 28% of costs for other energy. KWG has patented a process which can reduce those costs cosiderably, using mainly natural gas, rather than electricity.