The MAN OF STEEL.....gets Defensive
posted on
Jan 31, 2018 09:31AM
NI 43-101 Update (September 2012): 11.1 Mt @ 1.68% Ni, 0.87% Cu, 0.89 gpt Pt and 3.09 gpt Pd and 0.18 gpt Au (Proven & Probable Reserves) / 8.9 Mt @ 1.10% Ni, 1.14% Cu, 1.16 gpt Pt and 3.49 gpt Pd and 0.30 gpt Au (Inferred Resource)
https://newrepublic.com/article/146820/man-us-steel
Quotes from the article:
.....But protecting American jobs means more than setting tariffs or quotas. In fact, in the very steel industry where Gerard wants to see action, a deeper problem has emerged: a duopoly in domestic steel production that, if empowered as the two major suppliers to the U.S. market, would have an enormous impact on what Americans build and eventually what they buy. The situation demonstrates that it’s not enough to devise industrial policy based just on foreign competition; you have to look at the domestic companies making the goods, too.....
....These preliminary spats are just a prelude to the much more momentous upcoming decision on steel. On January 11, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross finally delivered a “Section 232” report—originally expected back in June—about the threat that steel imports pose to national security. Since steel imports increased 17.5 percent in 2017, it’s widely believed that the report—though not yet public—will signal that dumping cheap steel into the United States could impede government needs in the event of a war, for example. Trump has 90 days to issue a response to the investigation, which could include unlimited tariffs or even restrictions on steel imports.....
.....
But nobody is looking at which steel companies might actually benefit from the change. A little-noticed report in an industry trade paper earlier this month points to a surprising answer: mainly just two.
The report, from American Metal Market magazine, highlights Commercial Metals Company’s (CMC) purchase of four mills from a competitor named Gerdau.
Please take a moment to see the following links about Gerdau, who have loactions all across the US, and even a location in Whitby, ON. that is close to the shores of Lake Ontario:
....Once the deal closes, CMC will solidify a 50 percent share of the market for rebar, the reinforcing beams used in bridges, buildings, roadways, and nearly every structure built in America....
......Seth Rosenfeld, a market analyst with Jeffries, saw the acquisition as “further aiding pricing discipline in an already consolidated market.” That term, “pricing discipline,” has a very specific meaning. It refers to the ability to gouge purchasers for higher prices, in this case for rebar.....
Comment: This means that the cost to revamp, and/or rebuild, "Trump's New America" will not only be controlled by this dictatorship, but will also put an enormous price tag on this isolated American bubble. The overshadowing duopoly, along with the other monopolies in the chain, who are looking at these price increases will cause a tremendous trickle down effect that will not only boost the prices of commodities, but trigger a desparate search to secure the domestic sources of those commodities....As Babjak1 has pointed out in the past much of this insourcing of raw materials cannot be done within US borders...There is just not enough in the US ground to support their needs.
Especially, when you are talking about chromite, which the US has very little of, and so desparately needs to secure, along with rare earths, to ensure it's national security as an independent war machine. If America wishes to isolate itself from the rest of the world Mr. Trump will have to do a little cross border shopping if he wants to keep up to all his infrastructure promises. There is no doubt in my mind that all of his elitist friends, whose pockets he is filling, will expect him to put the policies in place that make sure their money tree stay very health for years to come....Noront, IMO, just happens to be one of the very strong limbs on that tree.
......If the deal clears, CMC and one other company, Nucor, would control close to 85 percent of the domestic market. Nucor would thus get a “free-rider” benefit from higher prices in a consolidated market, Rosenfeld said, because CMC is doing all the consolidation work for them.
So, if Trump moves to restrict imports of steel rebar, which ran at about 1.5 million tons last year, he will be handing over the market to two companies that would have a serious incentive to jack up prices, given the lack of competition. CMC stock has been running wild since the first of the year, up 20 percent in a month. This anticipation of inflated prices can be seen across all steel markets, not just rebar: A research note from Zacks states that domestic steelmakers would have “more pricing power” if Trump triggers Section 232 restrictions.
....What does this mean for you? In addition to construction, steel is used in automobiles, rail lines, aircraft, energy infrastructure, packaging, and appliances. Go into your kitchen and you’ll find a dozen stainless-steel products without looking too hard.....
.......The United States does have a domestic steel-market problem. Annual production has fallen 23 percent in the past decade and a half, and the entire domestic industry has struggled to survive. But the survival strategy to this point has been to merge with one another, on the idea that bigger is better.....
.....The nation would need antitrust enforcement to limit concentration in the steel industry, or else the United States will just walk from one bad situation into another. The free market will not sort this out. Only the kind of antitrust enforcement that served this country well for a century will create true competition in steel to the benefit of suppliers, manufacturers, and consumers.....
Comment: If Trump is allowed to continue the ball will roll quickly, and in 90 days (from Jan. 11), which makes the date April 11, we will begin to see what effect Section 232 will have on our Ring of Fire; IMHO. Can't wait to see what happens...
TM.