“This is a game changer for the market,” said Wenyu Yao, metals strategist at Dutch bank ING.

Friday marked nickel’s largest one-day increase since January 2009, figures from CQG show. 

The trade embargo is an example of governments in resource-rich countries seeking to take greater control of their raw materials. Indonesia is aiming to become Asia’s main producer of electric vehicles, many of which are powered by lithium-ion batteries made using nickel.

“It’s a form of resource nationalism by Indonesia,” said Casper Burgering, senior industrial-metal economist at ABN Amro. “They want to capitalize on the robust fundamentals of nickel and from the sales of electric vehicles.”

The southeast Asian country is the world’s biggest exporter of nickel ore, and traders have for several months speculated whether the ban, previously scheduled for 2022, would be brought forward. Few, however, expected that it would come into force as soon as this year.

The ban would almost certainly push the global market in refined nickel to a deficit, analysts say. 

“All in all, 100,000 tons of refined nickel output will be lost, which will leave the market in a meaningful deficit,” said Timothy Wood-Dow, an analyst at BMO Capital Markets.

Other factors are also contributing to nickel shortages. A recent waste spill at a nickel plant in Papua New Guinea raised concerns that the facility, which produces around 32,500 tons of nickel a year, could be closed. Longer term, consumption is expected to rise as governments around the world seek to clean up the air city-dwellers breathe, boosting demand for electric vehicles.

“It’s not just Indonesia,” Ms. Yao said. “All things are coming together to push nickel higher, not just fundamentally but also technically.” 

Stockpiles of the metal in London Metal Exchange warehouses have dropped by 30% to 150,708 tons this year.

Some analysts doubt that prices will remain at these elevated levels for long. If the Philippines ramps up shipments in response to the ban, it would soften the overall impact on the nickel market. Indonesian output of refined nickel could rise quickly because production costs are now almost $3,000 a ton below the market price, said Mr. Wood-Dow of BMO Capital Markets.

“The fact that [the ban] is so far forward is substantial” because it gives mining companies little time to ship their stockpiles of nickel ore out of Indonesia, said Oliver Nugent, a strategist at Citigroup. However, he added that the government’s statement was vague and he isn’t convinced that the ban will take effect this year. “There are still question marks about this.”

This wouldn’t be the first time that Indonesia has sought to clamp down on exports of nickel ore. A previous ban introduced in 2014 was loosened three years later.

Elsewhere in commodities Friday, U.S. crude-oil prices slid 2.8% to $55.10 a barrel, paring some of their recent rebound, with some analysts still wary that tariffs will weaken demand and result in excess supply. Brent crude, the global gauge of oil prices, fell 1.1% to $60.43 a barrel. 

—Amrith Ramkumar contributed to this article

told you so,inca.