We’ll probably never know what transpired or why the “discussions” between BHP and Wyloo failed, but I have to wonder what went on behind closed doors…

My guess is that BHP planned to replace the current offer with whatever they agreed to with Wyloo, along with a slightly higher SP to try to satisfy retail investors. (And they may still change the structure of their offer - as PM suggested - cash + BHP shares? I’m not sure they would open up the possibility of allowing shareholders to keep some of their NOT shares as that would have to include Wyloo’s 37%.)

Although they both want all of NOT, there are some interesting differences in their approaches. 

Wyloo clearly wants to replace the BOD, whereas BHP seems to be content to keep them - at least in the short term. If they were talking JV, maybe they couldn’t agree on who would run the new Noront? Wyloo/Forrest seems to like having representation on the BOD (they’ve done this with other companies, not just NOT - e.g. DNT). Did they want Twiggy at the helm? That probably wouldn’t sit well with BHP. 

On the other hand, BHP keeps saying they want 100% ownership, and that may not have been acceptable to Wyloo, even with a substantially higher share price.

Which leads me to share price. Was BHP not willing to offer enough, or was Wyloo asking for too much?

Twiggy’s latest comments and the fact Wyloo is willing to pay $1.10 make it clear they know it’s worth a lot more than that. The question is how much more do they want? Naturally they both want a decent return on their investment (don’t we all?), but how much? 50%? 100%? 200%? 1000%? More? 

While I agree with the old adage that something is only worth what a buyer will pay for it, a transaction requires a buyer and a seller, and if the seller doesn’t like the price, there will be no sale. Since I’m the seller in this case, I’ll sell when I personally like the price, and NOT before. 

Even if BHP or Wyloo were to only break even on Eagle’s Nest they’ll still make a fortune on the other deposits and all the chromite - and they know it!

GLTA,

Hobbit