imo $44-47 re: s/sheet
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Aiming to become the global leader in chip-scale photonic solutions by deploying Optical Interposer technology to enable the seamless integration of electronics and photonics for a broad range of vertical market applications
Message: imo $44-47 re: s/sheet
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not to beat a dead horse, but that was from last summer (I have updated the below with today's SP & FD).
I'll be the first to admit that it is woefully simplistic.
but even as a back-of-the-envelope ... it perhaps can serve as a guidepost for magnitude well enough.
parse out all the info from P1 (Mike's Feb/2011 letter to Leon) into Excel, and you'll wind up with the below.
unfortunately, P2 didn't give us any real meat to work with in doing our own calculations.
YMMV, IANAL, DYODD, etc.
GLTA,
R.
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Military: Fifty Million initial fee for each licensed agency, plus each flat-rate $250,000 monthly.
Commercial: Twenty Million initial fee for each licensed manufacturer, plus 8.17% of each unit sold.
Let's Do That Math ...
POET should achieve ~$145 Billion in revenues over the patents' lifetime.
Result:
$144B Commercial CPU/etc. Market
plus $944MM Defense
less $7B sub-royalties to UConn
leaves $138B gross
call it $83B after tax
reserve $3B for crafty patent-protection lawyers
figure they'll also burn $5B on general costs
leaves $75B free and clear.
Take that ~$75B net-net over 19 years, give it a generous 25% discount rate.
What's that worth Today?
PV of Expected Cash flows:$19,943,896,610.00
Net Present Value:$14,943,896,610.00
Lose 2-3%/yr for inflation (call it $400MM/a).
You're still left with $8-12 Billion NPV, or $46.73/share at the midpoint.
Alternative based on P/E.
consider this alternative.
at $1.50, PTK currently has its forward P/E at about 0.51
NPV of net EPS/a is about $2.95/share/year.
($12B NPV/19y/214MM shares = $2.95/yr)
the average US P/E for the last ~120 years has been around 15 (or an earnings yield of ~6.6%)
using P/E, PTK is comparatively about 30x undervalued, should it be allowed to reach its potential. (15/0.51 = ~29.5)
giving the alternative, 29.5 * $1.50 = $44.25
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