Response on SA
posted on
Oct 03, 2014 10:40AM
I noticed a post responding to Edward on SA...thought i would share to help remind everyone of what we have here.
Edward,
Although i appreciate many different perspectives on an investment, and applaud the level of effort placed into this article, i could not help but notice many inaccuracies and some fairly obvious "short biased material" in here.
I'd like to think I am fairly up to speed on POET as a company and have a decent grasp on the technology, although not technical nor a IC industry person.
I could write at length about all the areas i feel are inaccurate, Fairchij has done a great job at debunking many of them on the technology side in the comments section.
Here is a few that are off the top of my head.
-the blatant posting, and chart of no revenue is quite humorous. POET is an R+D company (23 years of GaAS research), that is - in the next 4-5 month starting to drive revenue. They have developed a ground breaking technology that is now ready to be licensed and formed into an open industry alliance and revenue model.
-You state that POET may be able to obtain 50M in 5 years. Again, where is this coming from? POET is currently in negotiations with many entities and their first contract relationships will generate Non-reoccurring revenue of 10-'s of Millions of dollars alone -per customer - with ongoing reoccurring revenue for many, many years to come. Expect dozens++ of customer to repeat the aforementioned.
-You state that POET will have a spend a tremendous amount of money to gain volume and economies of scale in the GaAS space. Again, completely false. POET has 30+ patients and will be announcing alliance development partners, one of them being Synopsys, to build the eco-system for customers to have completely vertically integrated, turn key product development and manufacturing service for their clients. POET needs only be concerned with the IP of technology in which they are now just inked a deal to move into a state of the art lab (rumored to be either British Aerospace or Global Foundries). See the business model of Qualcom or ARM as an example of where POET can go. Will they need to add employees overtime - sure - but in no way is their size hindrance to capitalizing on the market opportunity of their IP.
-You state the current size of the GaAs industry as a limitation and a hindrance to POET. Again, a flawed argument. What is the size of any new market, when pioneers enter it? IBM, Microsoft, Ebay, Google, Facebook, Intel...these companies created new products - new industries - and in no way did the current market size reflect their ability to win or grow their company. If fact, being the first mover created a massive advantage, and this is exactly what will occur with POET, when they launch a product that runs at significantly less power and at much higher clock speeds that SI.
-You neglect to mention that the former CEO of the second largest foundry in the world, Global Foundries, has joined POET. Ajit Monocha is massively respected in the marketplace, having sold to and has a Rolodex that includes Apple, Samsung, and over one hundred (semiconductor) companies over the years. He holds a very keen technical knowledge of the semiconductor industry and has been active in speaking about the "next material" in articles and in speeches. He partipates in keynote speaches across the globe, CNBC, industry associations etc - an industry expert Why would a Global CEO caliber person, and industry thought leader such as Ajit take a role with POET, a small-cap GaAS IP company on the Canadian Venture exchange? Do we think he sees something that may change the game?
-You state Si photonics (well documented that SI photonics is 5-10 years + from being a reality, if at all), and bolt on SI techniques as the direction the industry going. We both know SI is running out of atoms on the gate, and the other technologies you mention is are again - bolt on, minor incremental add's to push SI just a little bit further . GaAS, is a completely new platform with big advantages in molecular mobility (clock speed) and very low power (especially POET's particular solution). SI will be succeeded (initially augmented) and now is the time.
-Last, POET has developed a industry groundbreaking technology that uses light (optics) to move the data in and out of the GaAS chip, the power (savings), heat savings and speed advantages vs. electronic means of transporting data across the system is very large. Combine that with the efficiencies of the GaAs chip itself, the potential is quite large.
I suggest you cover your short position very soon. POET is going to market with products in 2015 and has indicated key partner announcements, alliances and revenue are pending in the next 3-6 months, in addition to a NASDAQ listing.
Regardless, a good discussion.
Best.