tannersfriend,
I think placing too much store in Sheldon's investment strategy is a mistake. We have incomplete knowledge, plus, the decisions we know about haven't shown he's any sharper than most here when it comes to POET stock.
As an example of the danger of placing so much faith in Sheldon, I would quote your thought, "If there would be the slightest doubt that POET would succeed, he would not do that." As much as I think POET is a fine risk/reward play, the foregoing just can't be true.