Anyone who has spent time in a foxhole at night watching the frost fall will know that the coldest time is just before dawn. I was up far too early this morning in what has been this winter’s coldest night here in Wales to date.

I decided to read the F20 hunting for changes, the chill of the hour barely competed with the chill one gets reading through the risks section of the F20. POET risk is very succinctly elaborated in that document and no one without a crystal ball should be any doubt that POET is not a done deal. Do your DD, read the F20 and know that management well know what the risks are; as they drafted the document you have to believe that POET management is moving forward with its eyes wide open. But is it really necessary to make a virtue on this board out of ultra-realism in our posts when success comes as much from dreaming big.

For me the real question to ask is how management is meeting the perceived risks. Does it have an effective business case and plan? In military terms rehearsing and planning for the unforeseen is a battle success factor, has our management got success written over it?

Evaluating the management’s achievements in F20, the work with BAE where there is a tested production system and product; then seeing what is being done in technical, managerial and organisational terms over the last year coupled with the confidence given by a strong record of achievement, plus an uncanny ability to attract management of the highest order. My analysis is that POET is set fair, the fundamentals remain strong and everything points to arriving with a fully-fledged product at the appropriate time to meet a growing demand in the IC market for its IP offering.

Whilst the deals we seek have not been announced there have been sufficient hints and asides from varying management sources directly to beacomfort to shareholders as they suggest that partners and customers are committed to POET; words like substantial and many are used in this respect in the NR.

Whist I empathise with prophecyman and his clarion call for retaining a sense of reality, one invests in POET because of individual belief that the balance of probability rest in favour of continued investment in the product. For me there is nothing unrealistic in perceiving that given the mania that Eileen eloquently describes the $70 SP is obtainable – why not it’s just investor fun; fine as long as management retain a hold on reality, why do we have to be so serious.

with regards

sulasailor