Aiming to become the global leader in chip-scale photonic solutions by deploying Optical Interposer technology to enable the seamless integration of electronics and photonics for a broad range of vertical market applications

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Message: Re: Here's a nugget from a July 2013 story about POET - 'Expectation' Delay
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Feb 09, 2015 09:26PM
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Feb 10, 2015 12:12AM
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Feb 10, 2015 12:21AM

Adrian Brijbassi prophetic post of 9 Feb 15 is certainly worth another read - (see his remarks on Pinetree). I would recommend a reread to all. What I perhaps missed on first reading his post is Adrian's comment:

' that persuading large businesses - let alone entire industries - to alter course is a guargantuam task'.

It strikes me that the 'expectation' delay we have experienced in 2015 is due to factors of this nature. No one can deny that expectation of income in early 2015 is now scheduled towards the start of 2016, a year later than expected.

The reason for 'expectation' delay is that the company has had to move mountains to change attitudes. For me the quality of our new executive team has much to do with the fact that there is now a clear indication of substantial progress in moving that mountain. To change attitudes has I believe demanded a new strategy. Parts of this have already been relvealed to us in the actions of our executive team, but on the 30th of September, and possibly earlier, more of the new plan will be revealed.

First I must say more on 'expectations'. As Adrian stated, he still thinks (in February) a sell out is possible. Like Adrian many of longs have stayed with POET, certainly in my case, with the notion that we might just miss that one day when that sell happened. This has created a hightened sense of 'expectation' with this investment for many of us which has not really bourne fruit leading to a long period of investor fatigue.

It has taken time to emerge but we are now entering a new phase in POET's history where our expectations for POET will be met. This may not meet the instant gratification of 'sell' strategy but will move us to a 'build it' strategy.

It always occurred to me that the alternative to 'sell' and the instantant gratification that would bring to us all (Adrian's estimates a $20 Billion price) is to 'build it'. The 'build it' strategy is what we are now seeing emerge. By employing people who can and have actually built IC , Anadigics and maybe others to 'build it' and finding an unknown customer who will buy it, this company has initiated project to build POET VCSELs. The impact of the POET VCSEL on the IC world will then make the Mountain come to Mohammed (PBUH) as industry realises POET's disruptive capacity. This also informs us why silence has been necessary because we simply cannot afford to disturb the sleeping giants who will see POET as dangerously disruptive.

Eileens concept of a legacy investment is what POET is now becoming and much as Scary Racoon has said, we may have to wait longer until the SP and dividend payments that should eventually be paid to demonstrate such legacy value. However, one cannot discount 'sell' or 'mania' as currently the worlds macro exonomic forces have placed vast sums of money in stores waiting for the next best thing to come along. Which is why I can not bring myself to play games with my investment and jump in and out. It is a fact of investment that the large gains are made in short periods and I would not risk missing that.

An as yet undicernable force of nature is brewing over the horizon, a perfect strom? - maybe.

Read Adrian's prophetic view point.

sula

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