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Message: Re: RS or no RS
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Feb 26, 2015 09:41PM

Okay, taking into account that the time the various activities take on our way to Nasdaq, cannot be predicted reliably, I made a rough calculation assuming an optimistic, a realistic, and a pessimistic duration for each activity. You might agree or disagree with these estimates, of course. Use your own estimates and recalculate!

The duration estimates for RO and VCSEL are the remaining days from now until 2015-03-31. (This is what I am calling the "realistic" scenario. You might argue that completion as announced would be optimistic, not realistic, and you would indeed have a point there. :-))

I am also assuming that these activities are in sequence, i.e. activity B can start only when A has completed. However, a partnership that is neither relying on the ring oscillator nor on the VCSEL might come out of the blue and render all estimates useless.

Anyway, according to my model (including all its shortcomings) I would expect a partnership announcement not before May and not after the end of October.

Sorry for the formatting!


Duration

Completion date


optimistic realistic pessimistic optimistic realistic pessimistic
Ring Oscillator, VCSEL 25 32 60 2015-03-24 2015-03-31 2015-04-28
Testing 14 30 60 2015-04-07 2015-04-30 2015-06-27
Serious conversations 30 60 120 2015-05-07 2015-06-29 2015-10-25
Partnership announcement 0 0 0 2015-05-07 2015-06-29 2015-10-25
Nasdaq application 14 28 42 2015-05-21 2015-07-27 2015-12-06
Minimum bid duration 0 0 126 2015-05-21 2015-07-27 2016-04-10
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