The $70-Club calculations

Aiming to become the global leader in chip-scale photonic solutions by deploying Optical Interposer technology to enable the seamless integration of electronics and photonics for a broad range of vertical market applications

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pecosmud

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The $70-Club calculations

in response to

Re: The $70-Club by numbers

Steve75

posted on Jul 07, 2015 01:31PM

What am I missing re your observation that roughly 1% of market would get the SP to $70 when you use 8% in your formula as shown below?

Global semiconductor market in 2016: $355 billions

Amount of shares in 2016: 250.000.000 (fully diluted, together with some more shares for “happy bankers”)

P/E-ratio: 60 (according to ARM using a similar license model)

Revenue: 8% (according to the Pellegino-reports)

Now let’s do a rough calculation excluding NRE, costs and taxes- here we go:

$70 / ($355,000,000,000 x 0.08 / $250,000,000 x 60) = 0.01

As you see, from a straight mathematical point of view (no hype, no future anticipation etc. considered) the journey from $1.60 to $70 will take as long as it will take to gain market penetration of roughly just 1%.

So this will be the point when the $70-Club opens its doors: 1% of the semiconductor market using Poet-technology. Everyone who believes this can happen- welcome to the club right now.