Re: Tea leaves
in response to
by
posted on
Oct 13, 2016 02:49AM
Baba
With siix hours of sleep and feeling focused again I see the board has moved on and IR has broadly answered the question I would have posed to them, so no further action from me and thanks to Tannersfriend for posting from the German Board Nevermind1's post.
Also in passing its great to see the Mcnappa humour resurfacing once more - how does he do that - brilliant screwed up mind thing.
My memory of the previous timeline chart of POET Milestones , which I can't access now, has I believe a line for AOC runinng through 2017 to 2018. IR's explanation is largely as I read it previously, although I did not associate the Export License issue directly with the AOC.
On a number of occasions I have felt that where this board falls down is misinterpretaion of the realities of the process of product implementation,. To the extent that I often wondered whether PTI had any real intention of expanding given how under resourced they were to do so in funds and manpower to provide the necessary structure Aquisition has however been their chosen route to resolve this the and given the thumbs up they have had with DL and BB aquisition one wonders whether the plans for an injection of new capital will leadprincipally to yet another aquisition. Exciting!
The key impact of this NR is that managment have at last got a grip with investors on the over expectation of PTI management. SV given his previous experience , and the conclusions drwan from his grand toru of DL customers, knows full well just how much lead time is needed for customers to integrate new products within their particular systems. He has therefore realistically placed revenue from AOC in 2018 when customers will have had at least a year, given no change in AOC prototype avaiability in Q4 2016, to go through the necessary steps to implementation. Customers do not pay for products up front they wait until the last possible moment in the final stages of their implementation plan. This cannot be forced along by shareholder expectation and time to implementation by customers is an unknown factor that cannot be resolved easily by management. So there we have it a sharp dose of reality.
But don't be downhearted!
What we have as a result of the new CP is that there is to be a growth in revenue in 2017 resulting from DenseLight ramp up of available products that was recently announced before POET's first products bight in. I am more hopeful that POET detectors might play a significant greater part in income generation as a commercial product on a shorter timescale given the maturity and needs of that particular virtical.
As FJ points out NRE is for licensing and I still hold out for some surprises here regarding my old chestnut and the lifting of NDA with an established but unannounced partner. Is this what is really meant by an approaching inflection point. Given, that we now understand the time needed from inception to implementation of POET based products in customers systems will need patience, why the emphasis on the coming inflection point and wouldn't one want to launch a new proposition after some very good news. We shall have to wait and see but
sula
PS
1. Major in reality actually and not Commander, though I feel very flattered by such a promotion.
2. Apologies for increasing error rate as my left eye needs a patch due to the approach of Trafalgar day on 20 October and growing a cateract.